TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109467
Played Sep 10Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118116711611117
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 89 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 1–1 Jacek Mitas Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:37What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mitas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1594 vs Mitas 1570
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Mitas 20%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 40% vs Mitas 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Mitas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mitas) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.10 / Mitas 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Mitas)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13109467
Kolek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 182 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back21% 59 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Mitas1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 56 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it83% 40 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKolek1wins
AwayMitas1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKolekMitasK − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.033.5+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1372 vs 105 / 23049.5%45.7%679 / 1372 vs 105 / 230Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitasKolek 2.10/Mitas 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Mitas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJun 14 · 18:20M. Kolek—67111182J. Mitas—111188113
WJun 13 · 16:25M. Kolek—1111113J. Mitas—6930
M. Kolek10
WSep 10 · 23:45M. Kolek2.381111113K. Kapik1.537570LSep 10 · 21:00M. Kolek2.381110761M. Olbrycht1.5381211113WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921
J. Mitas10
LSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.5313119113J. Mitas2.381171171WSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00111116862K. Staszczyk1.73561811113LSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113WSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek2 of 5 neutral
J. Mitas1 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 24:35J. Mitas1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 11 · 16:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 11 · 21:00J. Mitas—K. Strowski——Sep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas—K. Staszczyk——Sep 12 · 01:10J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——
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