TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13106474
Played Sep 10Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1151161618811611
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 16-18
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 103 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 60.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 1–2 Konrad Staszczyk Jacek Mitas has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1588 vs Staszczyk 1630
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 20% vs Staszczyk 40%
Staszczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 30% vs Staszczyk 50%
Staszczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas -3 · Staszczyk +1
Mitas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.00 / Staszczyk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13106474
Mitas2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Staszczyk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 151 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it83% 108 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMitas1wins
AwayStaszczyk2wins
Staszczyk leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas2Staszczyk1n = 3Mitas took 2 of 3
S2Mitas1Staszczyk2n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S3Mitas1Staszczyk2n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMitasStaszczykM − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match28.032.3−4.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 227 vs 184 / 32545.8%56.6%104 / 227 vs 184 / 325Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykMitas 2.00/Staszczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 7 · 24:45J. Mitas—65110K. Staszczyk—1111133
WJun 6 · 22:20J. Mitas—1111113K. Staszczyk—8750
LJun 6 · 20:15J. Mitas—116661K. Staszczyk—91111113
J. Mitas10
LSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113WSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113WAug 28 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.91691151J. Mitas1.8011118113LAug 28 · 20:30J. Mitas3.406560K. Kolodziej1.301111113
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113LSep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.2861111113K. Staszczyk3.50113631LSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht1.8311119113K. Staszczyk1.83991111WSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.73111212113M. Olbrycht2.006101471WSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113LSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181WSep 9 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.571512133L. Pietraszko2.251310110WSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas2 of 10 neutral
Sep 10 · 21:25J. Mitas2.38J. Chmielowski1.53—Sep 10 · 22:10J. Mitas2.38M. Olbrycht1.53—Sep 10 · 22:55J. Mitas1.67M. Kolek2.10—Sep 11 · 24:35J. Mitas1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 11 · 16:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 11 · 21:00J. Mitas—K. Strowski——Sep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——
K. Staszczyk4 of 9 neutral
Sep 11 · 09:20K. Staszczyk—K. Wisniewski——Sep 11 · 10:05K. Staszczyk—D. Kosmal——Sep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk—M. Miastowski——Sep 11 · 13:50K. Staszczyk—M. Kolek——Sep 11 · 22:50K. Staszczyk—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk—T. Filbrandt——Sep 12 · 24:45K. Staszczyk—J. Mitas——Sep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk—M. Marchlewski——
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