TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104869
Played Sep 10Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611811113119911
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 1–2 Konrad Staszczyk Jakub Chmielowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1626 vs Staszczyk 1619
Chmielowski
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 40% vs Staszczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 50% vs Staszczyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski +2 · Staszczyk -3
Staszczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.91 / Staszczyk 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmielowski)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13104869
Chmielowski1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 78 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Staszczyk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 151 of 238
Up 2–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it83% 108 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChmielowski1wins
AwayStaszczyk2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderStaszczyk leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski1Staszczyk2n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S2Chmielowski1Staszczyk2n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S3Chmielowski2Staszczyk1n = 3Chmielowski took 2 of 3
S4Chmielowski2Staszczyk1n = 3Chmielowski took 2 of 3
S5Chmielowski1Staszczyk2n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChmielowskiStaszczykC − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match45.747.7−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 734 vs 183 / 32448.8%56.5%358 / 734 vs 183 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmielowskiChmielowski 1.91/Staszczyk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmielowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski—117612102K. Staszczyk—9111110123
LMay 16 · 19:30J. Chmielowski—91111792K. Staszczyk—117711113
WMay 15 · 17:25J. Chmielowski—561111113K. Staszczyk—11117862
J. Chmielowski10
WSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113LSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071LSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143WSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.331310111172J. Krawczyk3.25151289113WSep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33761211113M. Benes1.20111110792WSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162
K. Staszczyk10
LSep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.2861111113K. Staszczyk3.50113631LSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht1.8311119113K. Staszczyk1.83991111WSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.73111212113M. Olbrycht2.006101471WSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113LSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181WSep 9 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.571512133L. Pietraszko2.251310110WSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113WSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482
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