TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103315
Played Sep 10Finished
Krystian Kolodziej
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611113116113––
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 62 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 6–2 Konrad Staszczyk Konrad Staszczyk has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Kolodziej
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1874 vs Staszczyk 1624
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 250 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 60% vs Staszczyk 40%
Kolodziej
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 50% vs Staszczyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +2 · Staszczyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.28 / Staszczyk 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Kolodziej)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13103315
Kolodziej1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite76% won 504 of 663
Up 2–0, closes it98% 312 of 319
Up 1–0, closes it88% 409 of 467
Staszczyk3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 30 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKolodziej6wins
AwayStaszczyk2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKolodziej leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej100%6 of 6
AwayStaszczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej6Staszczyk2n = 8Kolodziej took 6 of 8
S2Kolodziej5Staszczyk3n = 8Kolodziej took 5 of 8
S3Kolodziej6Staszczyk2n = 8Kolodziej took 6 of 8
S4Kolodziej2Staszczyk1n = 3Kolodziej took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKolodziejStaszczykK − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match39.029.2+9.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime1313 / 1953 vs 183 / 32367.2%56.7%1313 / 1953 vs 183 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.28/Staszczyk 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJun 7 · 02:00K. Kolodziej—11917123K. Staszczyk—51115101
LJun 6 · 23:30K. Kolodziej—109111192K. Staszczyk—121159113
WJun 6 · 21:35K. Kolodziej—1111113K. Staszczyk—3360
WMay 16 · 17:05K. Kolodziej—111186113K. Staszczyk—37111162
WMay 15 · 18:35K. Kolodziej—1211123K. Staszczyk—103100
WMay 11 · 02:00K. Kolodziej—1111113K. Staszczyk—3590
LMay 10 · 23:30K. Kolodziej—131180K. Staszczyk—1513113
WMay 10 · 21:35K. Kolodziej—1111113K. Staszczyk—5380
K. Kolodziej10
WSep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht3.50411651K. Kolodziej1.2811611113WSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 14:35K. Wloczko2.101111113K. Kolodziej1.679780WSep 10 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.633G. Felkel1.442LSep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.3671111113K. Kolodziej3.00115581WSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133LSep 10 · 09:20A. Grela1.4411116113K. Kolodziej2.63981151WSep 9 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251111123G. Felkel1.5788100LSep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.4461111113K. Kolodziej2.63116771LSep 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.83118119113K. Kolodziej1.8361191152
K. Staszczyk10
LSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht1.8311119113K. Staszczyk1.83991111WSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.73111212113M. Olbrycht2.006101471WSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113LSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181WSep 9 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.571512133L. Pietraszko2.251310110WSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113WSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871
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