TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13101064
Played Sep 10Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11612101214117––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 83 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 1–4 Michal Olbrycht Konrad Staszczyk has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Olbrycht
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1650 vs Olbrycht 1606
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 60% vs Olbrycht 20%
Staszczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 60% vs Olbrycht 30%
Staszczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +1 · Olbrycht +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.73 / Olbrycht 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13101064
Staszczyk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 149 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it87% 59 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it83% 107 of 129
Olbrycht2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 96 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStaszczyk1wins
AwayOlbrycht4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayOlbrycht100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk1Olbrycht4n = 5Olbrycht took 4 of 5
S2Staszczyk3Olbrycht2n = 5Staszczyk took 3 of 5
S3Staszczyk0Olbrycht5n = 5Olbrycht took 5 of 5
S4Staszczyk2Olbrycht1n = 3Staszczyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricStaszczykOlbrychtS − OBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match32.639.6−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 321 vs 359 / 76057%47.2%183 / 321 vs 359 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.73/Olbrycht 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk—111212113M. Olbrycht—6101471
LAug 18 · 21:25K. Staszczyk—11880M. Olbrycht—1311113
LAug 18 · 16:55K. Staszczyk—91151152M. Olbrycht—119119113
LAug 8 · 21:50K. Staszczyk—911641M. Olbrycht—11811113
LAug 8 · 15:25K. Staszczyk—61030M. Olbrycht—1112113
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113LSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181WSep 9 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.571512133L. Pietraszko2.251310110WSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113WSep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.539111511113K. Kostyk2.3811517482LSep 8 · 21:50K. Kapik2.00111011113K. Staszczyk1.73912871WSep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00911101562K. Staszczyk1.731181213113WSep 7 · 22:35B. Sulkowski3.5095100K. Staszczyk1.281111123LSep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.9191190K. Kapik1.801113113
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143LSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.5341111113M. Olbrycht2.38113891LSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113LSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361LSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162WSep 9 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.201111113J. Krawczyk4.337890LSep 9 · 15:45M. Olbrycht5.005850M. Benes1.141111113WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk1 of 5 neutral
M. Olbrycht4 of 9 neutral
Sep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht—K. Staszczyk——Sep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.60K. Kapik2.20—Sep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht—J. Chmielowski——Sep 10 · 21:00M. Olbrycht—M. Kolek——Sep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 22:35M. Olbrycht—K. Kapik——Sep 10 · 23:20M. Olbrycht—J. Chmielowski——
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