TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099387
Played Sep 9Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411113118119––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 30–29 Michal Olbrycht Michal Olbrycht has won 29 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-29 in 59
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1693 vs Olbrycht 1631
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Olbrycht 20%
Rutkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 70% vs Olbrycht 50%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +1 · Olbrycht -3
Olbrycht
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.53 / Olbrycht 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Rutkowski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13099387
Rutkowski1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 547
Up 2–0, closes it96% 189 of 196
Up 1–0, closes it89% 302 of 341
Olbrycht2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 96 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 152
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski6wins
AwayOlbrycht4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%5 of 5
AwayOlbrycht80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski5Olbrycht5n = 10split evenly
S2Rutkowski7Olbrycht3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Rutkowski6Olbrycht4n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S4Rutkowski4Olbrycht2n = 6Rutkowski took 4 of 6
S5Rutkowski1Olbrycht2n = 3Olbrycht took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiOlbrychtR − OBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.1+1.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime779 / 1387 vs 358 / 75656.2%47.4%779 / 1387 vs 358 / 756Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.53/Olbrycht 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 22:50M. Rutkowski—1211113M. Olbrycht—10760
WJul 28 · 22:10M. Rutkowski—111011113M. Olbrycht—712741
LJul 27 · 21:25M. Rutkowski—91191362M. Olbrycht—1161111113
LJul 18 · 23:35M. Rutkowski—41151652M. Olbrycht—1181114113
WJul 18 · 21:20M. Rutkowski—41112123M. Olbrycht—11610101
WJul 18 · 18:05M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—4790
WJul 18 · 24:45M. Rutkowski—1111113M. Olbrycht—8850
LJul 17 · 22:30M. Rutkowski—8660M. Olbrycht—1111113
WJun 30 · 23:15M. Rutkowski—131568113M. Olbrycht—1113111182
LJun 30 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—931151M. Olbrycht—11115113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181WSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113LSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113LSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113LSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980WSep 8 · 17:20A. Daniel1.611198121M. Rutkowski2.2081111143WSep 8 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.73101151162M. Rutkowski2.00128117113WSep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk2.25610100M. Rutkowski1.571112123
M. Olbrycht10
LSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113LSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361LSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162WSep 9 · 16:55M. Olbrycht1.201111113J. Krawczyk4.337890LSep 9 · 15:45M. Olbrycht5.005850M. Benes1.141111113WSep 3 · 24:35M. Rutkowski1.83911861M. Olbrycht1.8311711113LSep 2 · 22:55J. Kuzmicz1.3612119113M. Olbrycht3.001091131WSep 2 · 22:10L. Pietraszko2.108330M. Olbrycht1.671111113WSep 2 · 21:25J. Chmielowski2.20118871M. Olbrycht1.6171111113WSep 2 · 20:05M. Olbrycht1.83611116113K. Kapik1.8311981182
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
M. Olbrycht1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 22:55M. Olbrycht1.73J. Chmielowski2.00—Sep 10 · 24:35M. Olbrycht2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht—K. Staszczyk——Sep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht—K. Kolodziej——Sep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.60K. Kapik2.20—Sep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht—J. Chmielowski——Sep 10 · 21:00M. Olbrycht—M. Kolek——Sep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht—J. Mitas——Sep 10 · 22:35M. Olbrycht—K. Kapik——
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