TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105054
Played Sep 10Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181012711611––
Michal Olbrycht
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:51 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Michal Olbrycht below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 76 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 62.6%
76 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 4–8 Michal Olbrycht Maciej Kolek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:51What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Olbrycht
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1606 vs Olbrycht 1631
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 40% vs Olbrycht 60%
Olbrycht
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 40% vs Olbrycht 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Olbrycht +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.38 / Olbrycht 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Olbrycht)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13105054
Kolek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 182 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back21% 59 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Olbrycht1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 100 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek4wins
AwayOlbrycht6wins
Olbrycht leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek66.7%4 of 6
AwayOlbrycht100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek6Olbrycht4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Kolek2Olbrycht8n = 10Olbrycht took 8 of 10
S3Kolek3Olbrycht7n = 10Olbrycht took 7 of 10
S4Kolek3Olbrycht2n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekOlbrychtK − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.533.8−2.3per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekOlbrychtBasisWin rate · lifetime679 / 1371 vs 362 / 76549.5%47.3%679 / 1371 vs 362 / 765Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtKolek 2.38/Olbrycht 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 30 · 01:35M. Kolek—7860M. Olbrycht—1111113
WMar 29 · 23:05M. Kolek—111012113M. Olbrycht—5121051
LMar 17 · 02:05M. Kolek—9990M. Olbrycht—1111113
WMar 16 · 23:40M. Kolek—12115113M. Olbrycht—1071171
LMar 2 · 02:10M. Kolek—7690M. Olbrycht—1111113
WMar 1 · 23:45M. Kolek—111111113M. Olbrycht—813471
LMar 1 · 17:00M. Kolek—9780M. Olbrycht—1111113
LFeb 27 · 19:15M. Kolek—116541M. Olbrycht—91111113
LFeb 22 · 18:30M. Kolek—1156131M. Olbrycht—51111153
WFeb 22 · 02:10M. Kolek—1111113M. Olbrycht—9770
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101LSep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.83712111552K. Kapik1.831114713113LSep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht3.50411651K. Kolodziej1.2811611113WSep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht1.8311119113K. Staszczyk1.83991111LSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.73111212113M. Olbrycht2.006101471WSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143LSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.5341111113M. Olbrycht2.38113891LSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113LSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek1 of 8 neutral
Sep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10J. Mitas1.67—Sep 10 · 23:45M. Kolek2.38K. Kapik1.53—Sep 11 · 24:10M. Kolek1.83J. Chmielowski1.83—Sep 11 · 09:45M. Kolek—M. Miastowski——Sep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 12:10M. Kolek—K. Wisniewski——Sep 11 · 13:00M. Kolek—D. Kosmal——Sep 11 · 13:50M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——
M. Olbrycht
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