TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104868
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Olbrycht
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811131112101210––
Jakub Chmielowski
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Olbrycht above · Jakub Chmielowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 87 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 55.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Michal Olbrycht 4–5 Jakub Chmielowski Michal Olbrycht has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1619 vs Chmielowski 1615
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 40% vs Chmielowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 30% vs Chmielowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht -1 · Chmielowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmielowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.80 / Chmielowski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Olbrycht)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13104868
Olbrycht1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 100 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Chmielowski1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 78 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeOlbrycht4wins
AwayChmielowski5wins
5 of 9 to a deciderChmielowski leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht75%3 of 4
AwayChmielowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht4Chmielowski5n = 9Chmielowski took 5 of 9
S2Olbrycht5Chmielowski4n = 9Olbrycht took 5 of 9
S3Olbrycht5Chmielowski4n = 9Olbrycht took 5 of 9
S4Olbrycht6Chmielowski2n = 8Olbrycht took 6 of 8
S5Olbrycht1Chmielowski4n = 5Chmielowski took 4 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricOlbrychtChmielowskiO − CBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match41.243.7−2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtChmielowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 764 vs 358 / 73547.3%48.7%361 / 764 vs 358 / 735Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtOlbrycht 1.80/Chmielowski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 9 · 22:55M. Olbrycht—1111143J. Chmielowski—99120
LSep 9 · 17:40M. Olbrycht—11581162J. Chmielowski—611116113
WSep 2 · 21:25M. Olbrycht—71111113J. Chmielowski—118871
LSep 2 · 16:55M. Olbrycht—912111162J. Chmielowski—111498113
LAug 11 · 21:25M. Olbrycht—41471132J. Chmielowski—1112118113
WAug 11 · 16:55M. Olbrycht—12811113J. Chmielowski—1011981
LFeb 22 · 24:30M. Olbrycht—91111682J. Chmielowski—119711113
LFeb 21 · 22:35M. Olbrycht—613561J. Chmielowski—111111113
WJul 15 · 20:35M. Olbrycht—119711113J. Chmielowski—81111982
M. Olbrycht10
LSep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.83712111552K. Kapik1.831114713113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht3.50411651K. Kolodziej1.2811611113WSep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht1.8311119113K. Staszczyk1.83991111LSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.73111212113M. Olbrycht2.006101471WSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143LSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.5341111113M. Olbrycht2.38113891LSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113LSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361
J. Chmielowski10
LSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113WSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113LSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071LSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143WSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 20:30J. Chmielowski1.331310111172J. Krawczyk3.25151289113WSep 9 · 18:50J. Chmielowski4.33761211113M. Benes1.20111110792
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