TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105055
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Olbrycht
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71112141171513511
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:52 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Olbrycht above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 106 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 56.5%
106 points played in total.
H2H Michal Olbrycht 57–52 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 52 of their 109 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:52What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-52 in 109
Olbrycht
Wrong
gap of 5 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1629 vs Kapik 1674
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 60% vs Kapik 40%
Olbrycht
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 30% vs Kapik 50%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +1 · Kapik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.83 / Kapik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13105055
Olbrycht1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kapik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht6wins
AwayKapik4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht85.7%6 of 7
AwayKapik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht7Kapik3n = 10Olbrycht took 7 of 10
S2Olbrycht3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Olbrycht8Kapik2n = 10Olbrycht took 8 of 10
S4Olbrycht5Kapik3n = 8Olbrycht took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtKapikO − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.6+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime361 / 763 vs 1118 / 210047.3%53.2%361 / 763 vs 1118 / 2100Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikOlbrycht 1.83/Kapik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 18:05M. Olbrycht—12711113K. Kapik—1011771
WAug 11 · 22:10M. Olbrycht—11911113K. Kapik—911781
LAug 11 · 17:40M. Olbrycht—881141K. Kapik—11115113
WJul 28 · 22:35M. Olbrycht—1111113K. Kapik—7990
LJul 27 · 16:55M. Olbrycht—71181162K. Kapik—117118113
LJul 23 · 18:05M. Olbrycht—1169111K. Kapik—71111133
WJul 23 · 10:55M. Olbrycht—141111113K. Kapik—1213851
LJul 7 · 15:00M. Olbrycht—71211131K. Kapik—11149153
WJul 6 · 16:55M. Olbrycht—1111113K. Kapik—8990
WJun 30 · 23:55M. Olbrycht—11912133K. Kapik—81110111
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht3.50411651K. Kolodziej1.2811611113WSep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht1.8311119113K. Staszczyk1.83991111LSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.73111212113M. Olbrycht2.006101471WSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143LSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.5341111113M. Olbrycht2.38113891LSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113LSep 9 · 18:30A. Daniel1.61111111113M. Olbrycht2.20681361LSep 9 · 17:40J. Chmielowski2.00611116113M. Olbrycht1.7311581162
K. Kapik10
LSep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.731111113K. Kapik2.003960LSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113WSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113WSep 8 · 23:20K. Kapik1.441111113K. Kostyk2.636370
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