TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13106340
Played Sep 10Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115117––––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:02 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 59.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 17–29 Krzysztof Kapik Maciej Kolek has won 17 of their 46 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-29 in 46
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 12 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1605 vs Kapik 1671
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Kapik 40%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 40% vs Kapik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Kapik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.38 / Kapik 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kapik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13106340
Kolek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 182 of 461
Down 0–1, comes back21% 59 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 125
Kapik1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 259 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it96% 129 of 134
Up 1–0, closes it79% 177 of 225
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek5wins
AwayKapik5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%3 of 3
AwayKapik71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Kapik7n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S2Kolek5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolek5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolek5Kapik3n = 8Kolek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekKapikKolek − KapikBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.4+0.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime680 / 1373 vs 1118 / 210049.5%53.2%680 / 1373 vs 1118 / 2100Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKolek 2.38/Kapik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 12:10M. Kolek—811111192K. Kapik—118138113
WAug 26 · 22:10M. Kolek—11811113K. Kapik—311681
LAug 25 · 22:55M. Kolek—312881K. Kapik—111011113
WAug 25 · 24:10M. Kolek—11811113K. Kapik—611661
LAug 23 · 19:40M. Kolek—5119121K. Kapik—11911143
WAug 15 · 01:10M. Kolek—13411113K. Kapik—1111271
LAug 11 · 24:35M. Kolek—91080K. Kapik—1112113
WJul 22 · 20:05M. Kolek—91111123K. Kapik—1198101
LJul 12 · 18:05M. Kolek—10680K. Kapik—1211113
WJul 6 · 15:45M. Kolek—10111313113K. Kapik—125111582
M. Kolek10
WSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 21:00M. Kolek2.381110761M. Olbrycht1.5381211113WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921
K. Kapik10
WSep 10 · 22:35K. Kapik2.1011139113M. Olbrycht1.678111191LSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.731111113K. Kapik2.003960WSep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.83712111552K. Kapik1.831114713113LSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113WSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162
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