TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104866
Played Sep 10Finished
Jakub Chmielowski
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117116––––
Krzysztof Kapik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Chmielowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Chmielowski 14–19 Krzysztof Kapik Jakub Chmielowski has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Chmielowski beat Kapik 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmielowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-19 in 33
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmielowski 1590 vs Kapik 1677
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmielowski 40% vs Kapik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmielowski 30% vs Kapik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmielowski -3 · Kapik -1
Chmielowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmielowski 1.80 / Kapik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13104866
Chmielowski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 119 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it90% 53 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it72% 95 of 132
Kapik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 210 of 445
Down 0–1, comes back27% 63 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmielowski5wins
AwayKapik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmielowski60%3 of 5
AwayKapik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmielowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S2Chmielowski6Kapik4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S3Chmielowski5Kapik5n = 10split evenly
S4Chmielowski6Kapik4n = 10Chmielowski took 6 of 10
S5Chmielowski1Kapik3n = 4Kapik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmielowskiKapikC − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.140.8+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmielowskiKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 737 vs 1118 / 210148.6%53.2%358 / 737 vs 1118 / 2101Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikChmielowski 1.80/Kapik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chmielowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 19:15J. Chmielowski—11411882K. Kapik—911811113
LAug 23 · 18:50J. Chmielowski—7101181K. Kapik—11129113
WAug 11 · 23:20J. Chmielowski—13119113K. Kapik—1171171
LAug 11 · 20:30J. Chmielowski—911101182K. Kapik—118128113
WAug 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski—11115113K. Kapik—451151
LJul 30 · 22:55J. Chmielowski—6711101K. Kapik—11118123
WJul 30 · 20:05J. Chmielowski—811811123K. Kapik—118117102
WJul 21 · 12:10J. Chmielowski—11119113K. Kapik—771191
LJun 11 · 10:40J. Chmielowski—11513412K. Kapik—6111111113
WJun 11 · 07:35J. Chmielowski—91111113K. Kapik—118841
J. Chmielowski10
LSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101LSep 10 · 19:15J. Chmielowski1.9168111192K. Staszczyk1.80111139113WSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113LSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071LSep 9 · 23:45J. Chmielowski2.00117612102K. Staszczyk1.739111110123LSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143WSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680
K. Kapik10
LSep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.731111113K. Kapik2.003960WSep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.83712111552K. Kapik1.831114713113LSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113WSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162LSep 9 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.571311113K. Kapik2.2511680LSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113
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