TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105053
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Olbrycht
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311117911117––
Jacek Mitas
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:50 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Olbrycht above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 80 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Olbrycht at 58.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Michal Olbrycht 4–0 Jacek Mitas Jacek Mitas has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Olbrycht beat Mitas 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Olbrycht
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1664 vs Mitas 1570
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 60% vs Mitas 20%
Olbrycht
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 50% vs Mitas 30%
Olbrycht
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +2 · Mitas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Olbrycht) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.53 / Mitas 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Olbrycht)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13105053
Olbrycht1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 100 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 73 of 88
Mitas2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 44 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOlbrycht4wins
AwayMitas0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderOlbrycht leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht100%4 of 4
AwayMitasn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht4Mitas0n = 4Olbrycht took 4 of 4
S2Olbrycht3Mitas1n = 4Olbrycht took 3 of 4
S3Olbrycht3Mitas1n = 4Olbrycht took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricOlbrychtMitasO − MBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match39.228.8+10.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 767 vs 105 / 23047.5%45.7%364 / 767 vs 105 / 230Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtOlbrycht 1.53/Mitas 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht—13119113J. Mitas—1171171
WSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht—1111113J. Mitas—4780
WAug 8 · 24:20M. Olbrycht—125118113J. Mitas—101161122
WAug 7 · 21:45M. Olbrycht—1111113J. Mitas—9560
M. Olbrycht10
LSep 10 · 22:35K. Kapik2.1011139113M. Olbrycht1.678111191WSep 10 · 21:00M. Kolek2.381110761M. Olbrycht1.5381211113WSep 10 · 20:30M. Olbrycht1.8081312123J. Chmielowski1.91111110101LSep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.83712111552K. Kapik1.831114713113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht3.50411651K. Kolodziej1.2811611113WSep 10 · 15:00M. Olbrycht1.8311119113K. Staszczyk1.83991111LSep 10 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.73111212113M. Olbrycht2.006101471WSep 9 · 22:55J. Chmielowski2.0099120M. Olbrycht1.731111143LSep 9 · 22:10K. Kapik1.831111119113M. Olbrycht1.8361391162
J. Mitas10
WSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00111116862K. Staszczyk1.73561811113LSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113WSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas2.501111113M. Rutkowski1.508980LAug 28 · 22:30J. Mitas2.10951171S. Sporek1.6711119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Olbrycht
J. Mitas3 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 24:35J. Mitas1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 11 · 16:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 11 · 21:00J. Mitas—K. Strowski——Sep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas—K. Staszczyk——Sep 12 · 01:10J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.