TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113614
Played Sep 11Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116511911119311
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:34 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Strowski to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 87 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Karol Strowski at 60.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 21–22 Maciej Nowalinski Karol Strowski has won 21 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:34What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Nowalinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-22 in 43
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1855 vs Nowalinski 1744
Strowski
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 80% vs Nowalinski 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 80% vs Nowalinski 50%
Strowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski +2 · Nowalinski +3
Nowalinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strowski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.83 / Nowalinski 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Strowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13113614
Strowski1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Nowalinski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski6wins
AwayNowalinski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNowalinski44.4%4 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski1Nowalinski9n = 10Nowalinski took 9 of 10
S2Strowski9Nowalinski1n = 10Strowski took 9 of 10
S3Strowski7Nowalinski3n = 10Strowski took 7 of 10
S4Strowski3Nowalinski5n = 8Nowalinski took 5 of 8
S5Strowski3Nowalinski2n = 5Strowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiNowalinskiS − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match40.641.1−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime814 / 1392 vs 822 / 170958.5%48.1%814 / 1392 vs 822 / 1709Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.83/Nowalinski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 28 · 13:10K. Strowski—7870M. Nowalinski—1111113
LMay 26 · 14:45K. Strowski—71111652M. Nowalinski—119811113
WMay 15 · 13:35K. Strowski—71111113M. Nowalinski—118781
WMay 15 · 07:55K. Strowski—1111123M. Nowalinski—79100
LMay 4 · 13:35K. Strowski—81112762M. Nowalinski—1191011113
WApr 23 · 13:15K. Strowski—711127143M. Nowalinski—1161011122
LApr 14 · 10:20K. Strowski—711841M. Nowalinski—11711113
WMar 26 · 13:20K. Strowski—9111311113M. Nowalinski—11615592
WMar 26 · 04:30K. Strowski—61111113M. Nowalinski—116791
WFeb 23 · 10:05K. Strowski—1011118113M. Nowalinski—12981172
K. Strowski10
WSep 11 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.50881141K. Strowski1.5011115113WSep 11 · 16:30K. Strowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008780LSep 11 · 15:45K. Strowski1.91671141K. Wloczko1.8011117113WSep 11 · 14:10K. Strowski2.7511112113M. Jadczyk1.40961181WSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781WSep 11 · 11:15K. Strowski1.9181113113J. Kuzmicz1.801191191WSep 11 · 10:00K. Strowski2.00131111123K. Kolodziej1.731568101WSep 7 · 19:40K. Strowski1.911251012113K. Glazowski1.801011121082LSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332
M. Nowalinski10
WSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113WSep 11 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8371161192M. Nowalinski1.83118114113WSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173LSep 11 · 13:25K. Wisniewski2.551181111113M. Nowalinski1.4213115592WSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151WSep 11 · 09:00D. Kosmal2.75611761M. Nowalinski1.3611611113LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.