TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110407
Played Sep 11Finished
Jacek Mitas
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119116811511
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Mitas above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 58.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Mitas 0–3 Maciej Nowalinski Jacek Mitas has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Nowalinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Nowalinski
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1566 vs Nowalinski 1738
Nowalinski
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 40% vs Nowalinski 60%
Nowalinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 30% vs Nowalinski 50%
Nowalinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas +1 · Nowalinski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.63 / Nowalinski 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Nowalinski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13110407
Mitas2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Nowalinski1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 187 of 308
Up 2–0, closes it100% 63 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it84% 136 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMitas0wins
AwayNowalinski3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderNowalinski leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas1Nowalinski2n = 3Nowalinski took 2 of 3
S2Mitas2Nowalinski1n = 3Mitas took 2 of 3
S3Mitas1Nowalinski2n = 3Nowalinski took 2 of 3
S4Mitas1Nowalinski2n = 3Nowalinski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMitasNowalinskiM − NBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.748.7−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 233 vs 821 / 170845.5%48.1%106 / 233 vs 821 / 1708Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiMitas 2.63/Nowalinski 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 26 · 11:45J. Mitas—5813101M. Nowalinski—111111123
LJun 7 · 18:20J. Mitas—711611122M. Nowalinski—119114143
LJun 6 · 18:20J. Mitas—11138582M. Nowalinski—8111111113
J. Mitas10
WSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113LSep 11 · 24:35K. Kapik1.8311116113J. Mitas1.83891171LSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.5313119113J. Mitas2.381171171WSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00111116862K. Staszczyk1.73561811113LSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113WSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451
M. Nowalinski10
WSep 11 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8371161192M. Nowalinski1.83118114113WSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173LSep 11 · 13:25K. Wisniewski2.551181111113M. Nowalinski1.4213115592WSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151WSep 11 · 09:00D. Kosmal2.75611761M. Nowalinski1.3611611113LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791
Upcoming Matches
J. Mitas
Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.00T. Filbrandt1.73—Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas2.63P. Jendrzejewski1.44—Sep 11 · 21:00J. Mitas3.40K. Strowski1.30—Sep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.00T. Filbrandt1.73—Sep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.83M. Marchlewski1.83—Sep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 01:10J. Mitas2.63P. Jendrzejewski1.44—
M. Nowalinski
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