TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110408
Played Sep 11Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511411––––
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Mitas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-10
Point 44 set 3, 4-10 — our read held Jacek Mitas at 54.0%
44 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 2–3 Jacek Mitas Marcin Marchlewski has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:55What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mitas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1565 vs Mitas 1551
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Mitas 20%
Marchlewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 50% vs Mitas 20%
Marchlewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +1 · Mitas -3
Mitas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mitas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.83 / Mitas 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mitas)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13110408
Marchlewski1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Mitas1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMarchlewski2wins
AwayMitas3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMitas leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski66.7%2 of 3
AwayMitasn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski3Mitas2n = 5Marchlewski took 3 of 5
S2Marchlewski1Mitas4n = 5Mitas took 4 of 5
S3Marchlewski2Mitas3n = 5Mitas took 3 of 5
S4Marchlewski1Mitas3n = 4Mitas took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiMitasMarchlewski − MitasBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.637.8−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 951 vs 105 / 23248.5%45.3%461 / 951 vs 105 / 232Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MitasMarchlewski 1.83/Mitas 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mitas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mitas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 21 · 22:30M. Marchlewski—119751J. Mitas—51111113
LAug 21 · 18:05M. Marchlewski—9101191J. Mitas—11125103
LAug 7 · 23:15M. Marchlewski—15770J. Mitas—1711113
WAug 7 · 18:50M. Marchlewski—125118113J. Mitas—101171152
WJun 12 · 20:10M. Marchlewski—11118113J. Mitas—381181
M. Marchlewski10
WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050LAug 23 · 15:50A. Wos1.9711114113M. Marchlewski1.72861181WAug 23 · 24:10M. Marchlewski1.911111123J. Chmielowski1.8089100
J. Mitas10
LSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113LSep 11 · 24:35K. Kapik1.8311116113J. Mitas1.83891171LSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.5313119113J. Mitas2.381171171WSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00111116862K. Staszczyk1.73561811113LSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113WSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.20P. Jendrzejewski1.61—Sep 11 · 19:40M. Marchlewski2.63K. Strowski1.44—Sep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.63M. Nowalinski1.44—Sep 11 · 22:30M. Marchlewski2.20P. Jendrzejewski1.61—Sep 11 · 23:15M. Marchlewski1.91T. Filbrandt1.80—Sep 11 · 23:55M. Marchlewski1.83J. Mitas1.83—Sep 12 · 01:30M. Marchlewski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——
J. Mitas
Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.00T. Filbrandt1.73—Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas2.63P. Jendrzejewski1.44—Sep 11 · 21:00J. Mitas3.40K. Strowski1.30—Sep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas2.00T. Filbrandt1.73—Sep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas1.83M. Marchlewski1.83—Sep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 01:10J. Mitas2.63P. Jendrzejewski1.44—
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