TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13106339
Played Sep 11Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119611117––
Jacek Mitas
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Jacek Mitas below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 74 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 5–5 Jacek Mitas Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Mitas beat Kapik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mitas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1654 vs Mitas 1560
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 40% vs Mitas 20%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 40% vs Mitas 20%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik -1 · Mitas -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mitas form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.83 / Mitas 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kapik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13106339
Kapik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Mitas1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik5wins
AwayMitas5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik100%4 of 4
AwayMitas83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik4Mitas6n = 10Mitas took 6 of 10
S2Kapik7Mitas3n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Kapik2Mitas8n = 10Mitas took 8 of 10
S4Kapik4Mitas1n = 5Kapik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikMitasK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.435.40.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikMitasBasisWin rate · lifetime1117 / 2099 vs 105 / 23153.2%45.5%1117 / 2099 vs 105 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.83/Mitas 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 22 · 16:30K. Kapik—1411113J. Mitas—12540
LJun 14 · 21:10K. Kapik—5910J. Mitas—1111113
LJun 7 · 16:25K. Kapik—7870J. Mitas—1111113
LMay 27 · 24:15K. Kapik—711741J. Mitas—11811113
WMay 26 · 21:50K. Kapik—411912113J. Mitas—119111072
WMay 26 · 18:15K. Kapik—111511113J. Mitas—6131341
WMay 13 · 24:40K. Kapik—111111113J. Mitas—561351
WMay 12 · 22:15K. Kapik—1411143J. Mitas—122120
LMay 12 · 24:40K. Kapik—7370J. Mitas—1111113
LMay 11 · 22:15K. Kapik—1012151192J. Mitas—1210174113
K. Kapik10
LSep 10 · 23:45M. Kolek2.381111113K. Kapik1.537570WSep 10 · 22:35K. Kapik2.1011139113M. Olbrycht1.678111191LSep 10 · 21:50J. Chmielowski1.801211113K. Kapik1.9110760LSep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.731111113K. Kapik2.003960WSep 10 · 18:50M. Olbrycht1.83712111552K. Kapik1.831114713113LSep 10 · 18:05K. Kapik1.8311411312J. Chmielowski1.83811711113WSep 10 · 16:30K. Kapik1.671111113K. Staszczyk2.107820LSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.735790K. Kapik2.001111113
J. Mitas10
LSep 10 · 22:55M. Kolek2.10111176113J. Mitas1.6786111172LSep 10 · 22:10M. Olbrycht1.5313119113J. Mitas2.381171171WSep 10 · 21:25J. Chmielowski1.671161171J. Mitas2.1041113113LSep 10 · 20:05J. Mitas2.00111116862K. Staszczyk1.73561811113LSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392LSep 10 · 17:40M. Olbrycht1.671111113J. Mitas2.104780LSep 10 · 16:55J. Mitas2.1081090J. Chmielowski1.671112113WSep 10 · 15:45J. Mitas1.8311711113K. Kapik1.83911451LAug 29 · 01:10J. Mitas1.50813451D. Solilo2.50111111113LAug 29 · 24:20J. Mitas1.5081461152K. Rudomina2.501112115113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik
Nothing scheduled
J. Mitas1 of 9 neutral
Sep 11 · 16:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas—M. Nowalinski——Sep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 20:05J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 11 · 21:00J. Mitas—K. Strowski——Sep 11 · 22:05J. Mitas—T. Filbrandt——Sep 11 · 23:55J. Mitas—M. Marchlewski——Sep 12 · 24:45J. Mitas—K. Staszczyk——Sep 12 · 01:10J. Mitas—P. Jendrzejewski——
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