TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13108621
Played Sep 11Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13151161181210––
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeKarol Strowski to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 86 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Karol Strowski at 58.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 55–45 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 45 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:11What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolodziej
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-45 in 100
Strowski
Correct
gap of 10 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1822 vs Kolodziej 1890
Kolodziej
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 80% vs Kolodziej 100%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 70% vs Kolodziej 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski +1 · Kolodziej +5
Kolodziej
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 2.00 / Kolodziej 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kolodziej)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13108621
Strowski2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 77 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back26% 30 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Kolodziej1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite76% won 498 of 658
Up 2–0, closes it98% 307 of 314
Up 1–0, closes it87% 404 of 462
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski4wins
AwayKolodziej6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolodziej leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski33.3%1 of 3
AwayKolodziej57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski3Kolodziej7n = 10Kolodziej took 7 of 10
S2Strowski5Kolodziej5n = 10split evenly
S3Strowski9Kolodziej1n = 10Strowski took 9 of 10
S4Strowski2Kolodziej7n = 9Kolodziej took 7 of 9
S5Strowski2Kolodziej3n = 5Kolodziej took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiKolodziejS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.043.9−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime823 / 1405 vs 1315 / 195458.6%67.3%823 / 1405 vs 1315 / 1954Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejStrowski 2.00/Kolodziej 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 6 · 17:20K. Strowski—771191K. Kolodziej—11118113
LJul 6 · 14:10K. Strowski—11911482K. Kolodziej—811911113
LJun 30 · 13:20K. Strowski—81111792K. Kolodziej—118711113
WJun 29 · 19:40K. Strowski—7111112113K. Kolodziej—11961462
WJun 29 · 11:40K. Strowski—81111113K. Kolodziej—117881
LJun 27 · 11:40K. Strowski—1281181K. Kolodziej—14114113
LJun 24 · 18:30K. Strowski—75151192K. Kolodziej—1111136113
WJun 23 · 15:45K. Strowski—511124113K. Kolodziej—118101192
LJun 17 · 17:20K. Strowski—1151051K. Kolodziej—71112113
WJun 16 · 15:45K. Strowski—1315163K. Kolodziej—1113140
K. Strowski10
WSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781WSep 11 · 11:15K. Strowski1.9181113113J. Kuzmicz1.801191191WSep 7 · 19:40K. Strowski1.911251012113K. Glazowski1.801011121082LSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332WSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113WSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 7 · 14:35K. Strowski1.7471161182K. Glazowski1.94115119113WSep 7 · 13:00K. Strowski1.6011115113G. Poliniewicz2.15971171WSep 7 · 11:45K. Strowski1.471113123K. Wisniewski2.45911100
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 11 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz1.73111199113K. Kolodziej2.0097111182LSep 11 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.40911913113K. Kolodziej2.75118111152WSep 10 · 19:40K. Kolodziej1.731111113K. Kapik2.003960WSep 10 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.367111111113J. Mitas3.0011713392WSep 10 · 17:20K. Kolodziej1.2861111113K. Staszczyk3.50113631WSep 10 · 16:05M. Olbrycht3.50411651K. Kolodziej1.2811611113WSep 10 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.331111113J. Chmielowski3.256690LSep 10 · 14:35K. Wloczko2.101111113K. Kolodziej1.679780WSep 10 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.633G. Felkel1.442LSep 10 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.3671111113K. Kolodziej3.00115581
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K. Kolodziej
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