TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13113620
Played Sep 11Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311119811911––
Tomasz Filbrandt
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Tomasz Filbrandt below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomasz Filbrandt at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 27–26 Tomasz Filbrandt Tomasz Filbrandt has won 26 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Filbrandt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-26 in 53
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1550 vs Filbrandt 1616
Filbrandt
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 40% vs Filbrandt 60%
Filbrandt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 40% vs Filbrandt 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski -1 · Filbrandt -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filbrandt)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.00 / Filbrandt 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Filbrandt)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13113620
Marchlewski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Filbrandt1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 145 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it96% 54 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it79% 98 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski6wins
AwayFilbrandt4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski66.7%4 of 6
AwayFilbrandt50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski6Filbrandt4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski6Filbrandt4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S5Marchlewski2Filbrandt2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiFilbrandtM − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.042.1+1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime444 / 920 vs 682 / 127748.3%53.4%444 / 920 vs 682 / 1277Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtMarchlewski 2.00/Filbrandt 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 23:20M. Marchlewski—1011511102T. Filbrandt—124112123
WAug 2 · 20:30M. Marchlewski—91111113T. Filbrandt—117761
LJul 25 · 23:35M. Marchlewski—115681T. Filbrandt—91111113
WJul 25 · 21:20M. Marchlewski—11911113T. Filbrandt—911991
WJul 18 · 24:20M. Marchlewski—111188113T. Filbrandt—89111132
LJul 17 · 22:05M. Marchlewski—1314761T. Filbrandt—111611113
WJul 17 · 16:55M. Marchlewski—11612143T. Filbrandt—71110121
WJun 27 · 23:35M. Marchlewski—811117113T. Filbrandt—11771182
WJun 27 · 21:20M. Marchlewski—15914113T. Filbrandt—13111281
LJun 27 · 15:00M. Marchlewski—711101392T. Filbrandt—1151211113
M. Marchlewski10
WSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski1.6191111782M. Marchlewski2.20117511113LSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133WAug 23 · 16:35M. Marchlewski1.121112113D. Poloszczanski5.0031050
T. Filbrandt10
LSep 11 · 16:30K. Strowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008780WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113LSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103LSep 5 · 15:00T. Filbrandt1.7361111952D. Jadam2.00113711113
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 19:40M. Marchlewski2.75K. Strowski1.40—Sep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.75M. Nowalinski1.40—Sep 11 · 22:30M. Marchlewski2.20P. Jendrzejewski1.61—Sep 11 · 23:15M. Marchlewski1.91T. Filbrandt1.80—Sep 11 · 23:55M. Marchlewski1.83J. Mitas1.83—Sep 12 · 01:30M. Marchlewski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——
T. Filbrandt1 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.73J. Mitas2.00—Sep 11 · 20:30T. Filbrandt2.63M. Nowalinski1.44—Sep 11 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.83P. Jendrzejewski1.83—Sep 11 · 22:05T. Filbrandt1.73J. Mitas2.00—Sep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.80M. Marchlewski1.91—Sep 11 · 23:35T. Filbrandt1.67K. Staszczyk2.10—Sep 12 · 24:20T. Filbrandt1.83P. Jendrzejewski1.83—Sep 12 · 15:25T. Filbrandt—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 16:55T. Filbrandt—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:05T. Filbrandt—P. Jendrzejewski——
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