TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114369
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomasz Filbrandt
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
14161181614911119
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMaciej Nowalinski to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomasz Filbrandt above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 119 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Maciej Nowalinski at 56.9%
119 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 4–16 Maciej Nowalinski Tomasz Filbrandt has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Nowalinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-16 in 20
Nowalinski
Wrong
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1617 vs Nowalinski 1765
Nowalinski
Wrong
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 40% vs Nowalinski 80%
Nowalinski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 60% vs Nowalinski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt -1 · Nowalinski +4
Nowalinski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 2.63 / Nowalinski 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Nowalinski)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13114369
Filbrandt2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 58 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back17% 19 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 55
Nowalinski1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 187 of 308
Up 2–0, closes it100% 63 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it84% 136 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilbrandt2wins
AwayNowalinski8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNowalinski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandtn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNowalinski87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt2Nowalinski8n = 10Nowalinski took 8 of 10
S2Filbrandt3Nowalinski7n = 10Nowalinski took 7 of 10
S3Filbrandt3Nowalinski7n = 10Nowalinski took 7 of 10
S4Filbrandt3Nowalinski2n = 5Filbrandt took 3 of 5
S5Filbrandt1Nowalinski3n = 4Nowalinski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilbrandtNowalinskiF − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.340.1−5.8per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime683 / 1279 vs 823 / 171053.4%48.1%683 / 1279 vs 823 / 1710Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiFilbrandt 2.63/Nowalinski 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.8%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 18 · 06:10T. Filbrandt—99100M. Nowalinski—1111123
WOct 30 · 20:00T. Filbrandt—1011114123M. Nowalinski—127811102
LOct 4 · 21:10T. Filbrandt—911120M. Nowalinski—1113143
LJun 9 · 15:55T. Filbrandt—911101152M. Nowalinski—119128113
LJun 8 · 18:40T. Filbrandt—1011111432M. Nowalinski—1261312113
LMay 18 · 20:15T. Filbrandt—71180M. Nowalinski—1113113
LApr 1 · 19:00T. Filbrandt—3880M. Nowalinski—1111113
WFeb 28 · 01:15T. Filbrandt—11611113M. Nowalinski—811281
LFeb 27 · 22:50T. Filbrandt—11411592M. Nowalinski—411911113
LFeb 14 · 19:15T. Filbrandt—6550M. Nowalinski—1111113
T. Filbrandt10
LSep 11 · 19:15J. Mitas2.001112113T. Filbrandt1.7391060WSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski2.00311891T. Filbrandt1.7311911113LSep 11 · 16:30K. Strowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008780WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113
M. Nowalinski10
WSep 11 · 18:30K. Strowski1.8311591132M. Nowalinski1.83611119113WSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113WSep 11 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8371161192M. Nowalinski1.83118114113WSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173LSep 11 · 13:25K. Wisniewski2.551181111113M. Nowalinski1.4213115592WSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151WSep 11 · 09:00D. Kosmal2.75611761M. Nowalinski1.3611611113LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761
Upcoming Matches
T. Filbrandt1 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 21:45T. Filbrandt1.80P. Jendrzejewski1.91—Sep 11 · 22:05T. Filbrandt1.73J. Mitas2.00—Sep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.91M. Marchlewski1.80—Sep 11 · 23:35T. Filbrandt1.67K. Staszczyk2.10—Sep 12 · 24:20T. Filbrandt1.83P. Jendrzejewski1.83—Sep 12 · 15:25T. Filbrandt—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 16:55T. Filbrandt—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:05T. Filbrandt—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 20:30T. Filbrandt—M. Marchlewski——
M. Nowalinski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.