TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114294
Played Sep 11Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811118118711811
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:04 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeKarol Strowski to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Karol Strowski at 54.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 11–10 Marcin Marchlewski Marcin Marchlewski has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Strowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1833 vs Marchlewski 1545
Strowski
Wrong
both rated, 288 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 60% vs Marchlewski 40%
Strowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 70% vs Marchlewski 40%
Strowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -1 · Marchlewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Strowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.40 / Marchlewski 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Strowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13114294
Strowski1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 269 of 403
Up 2–0, closes it96% 101 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it85% 185 of 219
Marchlewski2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski5wins
AwayMarchlewski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayMarchlewski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski3Marchlewski7n = 10Marchlewski took 7 of 10
S2Strowski6Marchlewski4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S3Strowski8Marchlewski2n = 10Strowski took 8 of 10
S4Strowski2Marchlewski5n = 7Marchlewski took 5 of 7
S5Strowski2Marchlewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiMarchlewskiS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.6+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime814 / 1393 vs 445 / 92258.4%48.3%814 / 1393 vs 445 / 922Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.40/Marchlewski 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 25 · 16:05K. Strowski—1111113M. Marchlewski—5790
LJul 24 · 19:40K. Strowski—11711592M. Marchlewski—911711113
LJul 17 · 21:20K. Strowski—61191392M. Marchlewski—1171111113
WJun 27 · 16:05K. Strowski—511118113M. Marchlewski—11871182
LJan 30 · 20:45K. Strowski—7670M. Marchlewski—1111113
LJan 2 · 19:35K. Strowski—791171M. Marchlewski—11117113
WDec 19 · 18:50K. Strowski—101111883M. Marchlewski—12871162
WDec 5 · 19:35K. Strowski—1111103M. Marchlewski—6480
WOct 31 · 19:35K. Strowski—81111123M. Marchlewski—1175101
LOct 3 · 18:35K. Strowski—761171M. Marchlewski—11119113
K. Strowski10
LSep 11 · 18:30K. Strowski1.8311591132M. Nowalinski1.83611119113WSep 11 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.50881141K. Strowski1.5011115113WSep 11 · 16:30K. Strowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008780LSep 11 · 15:45K. Strowski1.91671141K. Wloczko1.8011117113WSep 11 · 14:10K. Strowski2.7511112113M. Jadczyk1.40961181WSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781WSep 11 · 11:15K. Strowski1.9181113113J. Kuzmicz1.801191191WSep 11 · 10:00K. Strowski2.00131111123K. Kolodziej1.731568101WSep 7 · 19:40K. Strowski1.911251012113K. Glazowski1.801011121082LSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113
M. Marchlewski10
WSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski1.6191111782M. Marchlewski2.20117511113LSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski2.00311891T. Filbrandt1.7311911113LSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451LAug 23 · 18:10M. Marchlewski1.65119711112B. Sulkowski2.10411118133
Upcoming Matches
K. Strowski
M. Marchlewski2 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.63M. Nowalinski1.44—Sep 11 · 22:30M. Marchlewski2.20P. Jendrzejewski1.61—Sep 11 · 23:15M. Marchlewski1.91T. Filbrandt1.80—Sep 11 · 23:55M. Marchlewski2.00J. Mitas1.73—Sep 12 · 01:30M. Marchlewski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski—T. Filbrandt——
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