TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13108741
Played Sep 11Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111191181210––
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 4–10 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Miroslav Vaclavik has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Strnad
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1229 vs Strnad 1058
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 171 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 40% vs Strnad 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 50% vs Strnad 30%
Vaclavik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik -1 · Strnad +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.61 / Strnad 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Vaclavik)+2.1pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13108741
Vaclavik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 39 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Strnad2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 26 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back17% 11 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVaclavik3wins
AwayStrnad7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik66.7%2 of 3
AwayStrnad85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S2Vaclavik5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S3Vaclavik2Strnad8n = 10Strnad took 8 of 10
S4Vaclavik2Strnad4n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVaclavikStrnadV − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.036.8−2.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 187 vs 149 / 36052.9%41.4%99 / 187 vs 149 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.61/Strnad 2.20
Hit
What we said
59.8%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 01:00M. Vaclavik—1111153J. Strnad—39130
LJul 19 · 11:30M. Vaclavik—1111991J. Strnad—13911113
LAug 6 · 18:30M. Vaclavik—10101171J. Strnad—12127113
LJul 10 · 02:30M. Vaclavik—5970J. Strnad—1111113
LJul 6 · 22:00M. Vaclavik—1261051J. Strnad—101112113
LJul 4 · 11:30M. Vaclavik—911881J. Strnad—11511113
WJul 1 · 23:00M. Vaclavik—11119113J. Strnad—671171
LMay 29 · 13:08M. Vaclavik—10630J. Strnad—1211113
WMay 29 · 11:00M. Vaclavik—911611113J. Strnad—11811662
LMay 19 · 13:00M. Vaclavik—96110J. Strnad—1111133
M. Vaclavik10
LSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.50118914113L. Novotny2.50911111272WSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113LSep 8 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.407121091A. Hejduk2.75111012113LSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113WSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540LSep 7 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.5711115111M. Lubas2.2591311133WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113
J. Strnad10
WSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352LSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113WSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123
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