TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13108641
Played Sep 10Finished
Jiri Volek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111131012711––
Jan Hrncir
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Volek above · Jan Hrncir below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jan Hrncir at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Volek 2–1 Jan Hrncir Jan Hrncir has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hrncir
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Volek 1534 vs Hrncir 1495
Volek
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Volek 40% vs Hrncir 80%
Hrncir
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Volek 50% vs Hrncir 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Volek -2 · Hrncir -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hrncir)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrncir form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVolek 1.83 / Hrncir 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hrncir)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13108641
Volek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Hrncir1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVolek2wins
AwayHrncir1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderVolek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Volek2Hrncir1n = 3Volek took 2 of 3
S2Volek2Hrncir1n = 3Volek took 2 of 3
S3Volek1Hrncir2n = 3Hrncir took 2 of 3
S4Volek2Hrncir1n = 3Volek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVolekHrncirV − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.335.3+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVolekHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 84 vs 107 / 19946.4%53.8%39 / 84 vs 107 / 199Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirVolek 1.83/Hrncir 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJan 28 · 23:05J. Volek—1112511113J. Hrncir—31411852
WJan 28 · 21:55J. Volek—11118113J. Hrncir—221131
LOct 2 · 19:25J. Volek—91112252J. Hrncir—1141011113
J. Volek10
LAug 24 · 18:08J. Volek1.831111107102M. Sochor1.83691211123LAug 24 · 16:55J. Volek2.258470P. Moravec1.571111113WAug 24 · 15:55J. Volek1.91117911113M. Sochor1.8091111682LAug 24 · 14:55J. Volek2.3871112962M. Sulc1.531161011113WAug 18 · 18:35J. Volek1.50116211123M. Dvorak2.50711117102WAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny2.00911431J. Volek1.7311911113WAug 18 · 16:25M. Dvorak2.2512770J. Volek1.571411113WAug 18 · 15:25J. Volek2.0015611113M. Sochor1.731311391LAug 11 · 18:30P. Moravec1.731111113J. Volek2.009930LAug 11 · 16:55J. Volek1.8010640P. Moravec1.911211113
J. Hrncir10
LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970LAug 17 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8391211113J. Hrncir1.831110381WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hendrych2.20961161J. Hrncir1.6111119113LAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113
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