TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070129
Played Sep 3Finished
Matej Beran
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119811114411
Jan Hrncir
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:37 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeJan Hrncir to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Jan Hrncir below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jan Hrncir at 56.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 1–2 Jan Hrncir Matej Beran has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrncir
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1518 vs Hrncir 1447
Beran
Wrong
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 40% vs Hrncir 60%
Hrncir
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Hrncir 50%
Hrncir
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -2 · Hrncir +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Hrncir) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 2.00 / Hrncir 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Hrncir)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13070129
Beran2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back25% 3 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Hrncir1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite48% won 21 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBeran1wins
AwayHrncir2wins
Hrncir leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran1Hrncir2n = 3Hrncir took 2 of 3
S2Beran2Hrncir1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
S3Beran1Hrncir2n = 3Hrncir took 2 of 3
S4Beran1Hrncir2n = 3Hrncir took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBeranHrncirB − HBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match37.039.7−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranHrncirBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 152 vs 104 / 19546.1%53.3%70 / 152 vs 104 / 195Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrncirBeran 2.00/Hrncir 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Hrncir · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hrncir won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 17 · 21:55M. Beran—471281J. Hrncir—111110113
WJul 17 · 21:25M. Beran—111110113J. Hrncir—471281
LJan 7 · 21:50M. Beran—814691J. Hrncir—111211113
M. Beran10
LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521WAug 27 · 21:53M. Beran1.7211115113O. Fiklik2.00881181WAug 27 · 20:55M. Beran1.8391111113O. Fiklik1.83116861LAug 27 · 19:55M. Beran3.251291011112M. Brozek1.331011128133
J. Hrncir10
LSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 17:25M. Sochor2.2551070J. Hrncir1.571112113WSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WAug 17 · 17:30D. Tichy1.731011571J. Hrncir2.0012811113WAug 17 · 16:50J. Hrncir1.501191111113Z. Zahradka2.5061113842LAug 17 · 15:20M. Dvorak2.101211113J. Hrncir1.6710970LAug 17 · 14:50D. Tichy1.8391211113J. Hrncir1.831110381WAug 12 · 22:00J. Hendrych2.20961161J. Hrncir1.6111119113LAug 12 · 21:25J. Hrncir2.10113661O. Varecka1.6791111113LAug 12 · 19:55D. Sykora1.80411117113J. Hrncir1.9111861182
Upcoming Matches
M. Beran
J. Hrncir
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