TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051906
Played Aug 31Finished
Matej Beran
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151151113114––
Dominik Tichy
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:25 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMatej Beran to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Matej Beran at 57.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 1–1 Dominik Tichy Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Beran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Beran 1518 vs Tichy 1518
Beran
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 40% vs Tichy 60%
Tichy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Tichy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -1 · Tichy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Beran) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.61 / Tichy 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Beran)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13051906
Beran1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Tichy2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 27 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBeran1wins
AwayTichy1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBeranTichyB − TBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.037.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 152 vs 165 / 25746.1%64.2%70 / 152 vs 165 / 257Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranBeran 1.61/Tichy 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Beran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran—711511102D. Tichy—117116123
WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran—111111113D. Tichy—551341
M. Beran10
LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521WAug 27 · 21:53M. Beran1.7211115113O. Fiklik2.00881181WAug 27 · 20:55M. Beran1.8391111113O. Fiklik1.83116861LAug 27 · 19:55M. Beran3.251291011112M. Brozek1.331011128133
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143WAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570
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