TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082121
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411811––––
Dominik Tichy
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 8–7 Dominik Tichy Dominik Tichy has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tichy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1553 vs Tichy 1455
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 100% vs Tichy 20%
Dvorak
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 90% vs Tichy 40%
Dvorak
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +5 · Tichy -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.83 / Tichy 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13082121
Dvorak1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Tichy1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak7wins
AwayTichy3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak100%5 of 5
AwayTichy60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak5Tichy5n = 10split evenly
S2Dvorak5Tichy5n = 10split evenly
S3Dvorak7Tichy3n = 10Dvorak took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak5Tichy2n = 7Dvorak took 5 of 7
S5Dvorak3Tichy2n = 5Dvorak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakTichyD − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.334.7+5.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 344 vs 165 / 25948.8%63.7%168 / 344 vs 165 / 259Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.83/Tichy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 08:25J. Dvorak—911117113D. Tichy—11431142
WAug 28 · 18:30J. Dvorak—11118113D. Tichy—861171
WAug 28 · 15:25J. Dvorak—1111113D. Tichy—4970
LAug 13 · 14:50J. Dvorak—7131111112D. Tichy—111544133
WAug 9 · 06:55J. Dvorak—2111011113D. Tichy—11412892
WAug 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak—1111113D. Tichy—8170
WAug 3 · 14:50J. Dvorak—1112117113D. Tichy—81471132
LJul 31 · 15:25J. Dvorak—91111142D. Tichy—111145113
WJul 28 · 18:28J. Dvorak—12811113D. Tichy—1011881
LJul 28 · 16:55J. Dvorak—5860D. Tichy—1111113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140WAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143WAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570
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