TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082041
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114511117811119
Zdenek Zahradka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Zdenek Zahradka below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 41–37 Zdenek Zahradka Zdenek Zahradka has won 37 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zahradka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-37 in 78
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 4 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1573 vs Zahradka 1387
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 80% vs Zahradka 20%
Dvorak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 80% vs Zahradka 20%
Dvorak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +4 · Zahradka -2
Dvorak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.83 / Zahradka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13082041
Dvorak1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Zahradka1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak7wins
AwayZahradka3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak100%6 of 6
AwayZahradka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak6Zahradka4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak4Zahradka6n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak4Zahradka6n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S4Dvorak4Zahradka1n = 5Dvorak took 4 of 5
S5Dvorak3Zahradka0n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakZahradkaD − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.334.0+2.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 346 vs 421 / 83848.8%50.2%169 / 346 vs 421 / 838Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.83/Zahradka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 10:30J. Dvorak—8740Z. Zahradka—1111113
WAug 29 · 06:55J. Dvorak—111111183Z. Zahradka—7813161
LAug 23 · 18:08J. Dvorak—9570Z. Zahradka—1111113
WAug 23 · 15:25J. Dvorak—116711113Z. Zahradka—51111722
WAug 20 · 17:25J. Dvorak—1111113Z. Zahradka—6350
WAug 20 · 15:50J. Dvorak—11117113Z. Zahradka—871141
WAug 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak—119117113Z. Zahradka—81191152
WAug 2 · 17:54J. Dvorak—1111113Z. Zahradka—8990
WAug 2 · 15:50J. Dvorak—661113113Z. Zahradka—111181162
LJul 24 · 15:50J. Dvorak—8970Z. Zahradka—1111113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140WAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133
Z. Zahradka10
WSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113LSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123LSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101WSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 4 · 18:00Z. Zahradka1.6111911592R. Jamrich2.20711811113LSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113WSep 4 · 15:55R. Jamrich2.1054111172Z. Zahradka1.67111196113
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