TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082486
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191195111210––
Zdenek Zahradka
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeZdenek Zahradka to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Zdenek Zahradka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Zdenek Zahradka at 55.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 13–21 Zdenek Zahradka Martin Filipek has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zahradka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-21 in 34
Zahradka
Wrong
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1437 vs Zahradka 1465
Zahradka
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 20% vs Zahradka 40%
Zahradka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 40% vs Zahradka 20%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek -1 · Zahradka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Zahradka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 2.20 / Zahradka 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Zahradka)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13082486
Filipek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 86 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Zahradka1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 122 of 212
Up 2–0, closes it87% 53 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it72% 83 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek3wins
AwayZahradka7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZahradka leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek25%1 of 4
AwayZahradka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek4Zahradka6n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S2Filipek3Zahradka7n = 10Zahradka took 7 of 10
S3Filipek7Zahradka3n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S4Filipek4Zahradka5n = 9Zahradka took 5 of 9
S5Filipek1Zahradka4n = 5Zahradka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekZahradkaF − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.243.9−5.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 590 vs 419 / 83643.6%50.1%257 / 590 vs 419 / 836Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZahradkaFilipek 2.20/Zahradka 1.61
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Zahradka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 11:55M. Filipek—139791Z. Zahradka—111111113
LJul 13 · 06:55M. Filipek—11512582Z. Zahradka—7111011113
LJul 10 · 15:55M. Filipek—64111182Z. Zahradka—111188113
LJun 15 · 10:25M. Filipek—931191Z. Zahradka—11116113
LJun 15 · 07:25M. Filipek—91141152Z. Zahradka—117117113
LJun 12 · 14:30M. Filipek—7550Z. Zahradka—1111113
WJun 12 · 12:25M. Filipek—7111111113Z. Zahradka—11981372
LJun 11 · 13:25M. Filipek—111011552Z. Zahradka—712911113
WJun 8 · 09:25M. Filipek—12415113Z. Zahradka—10111381
WMay 27 · 13:25M. Filipek—51211113Z. Zahradka—1110791
M. Filipek10
WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891LSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132WSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113
Z. Zahradka10
WSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113LSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192LSep 4 · 18:00Z. Zahradka1.6111911592R. Jamrich2.20711811113LSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113WSep 4 · 15:55R. Jamrich2.1054111172Z. Zahradka1.67111196113
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