TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071398
Played Sep 3Finished
Adam Kral
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119711117911
Martin Filipek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Filipek at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 37–41 Martin Filipek Adam Kral has won 37 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:40What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-41 in 78
Filipek
Correct
gap of 4 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1507 vs Filipek 1497
Kral
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 80% vs Filipek 40%
Kral
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 60% vs Filipek 40%
Kral
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +3 · Filipek +2
Kral
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filipek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.10 / Filipek 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Filipek)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13071398
Kral2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 91 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 58
Filipek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 54 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 38 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral3wins
AwayFilipek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral60%3 of 5
AwayFilipek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kral3Filipek7n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S3Kral3Filipek7n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S4Kral3Filipek3n = 6split evenly
S5Kral1Filipek2n = 3Filipek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralFilipekK − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.3−3.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 773 vs 254 / 58152.3%43.7%404 / 773 vs 254 / 581Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekKral 2.10/Filipek 1.67
Hit
What we said
54%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 08:25A. Kral—1148101M. Filipek—51111123
LAug 5 · 07:55A. Kral—56100M. Filipek—1111123
LAug 4 · 11:25A. Kral—5990M. Filipek—1111113
LJul 31 · 09:53A. Kral—1310871M. Filipek—111211113
LJul 31 · 07:25A. Kral—67100M. Filipek—1111123
WJul 30 · 14:04A. Kral—11711113M. Filipek—511691
WJul 30 · 13:25A. Kral—1111611143M. Filipek—881113122
WJul 13 · 07:55A. Kral—1112113M. Filipek—91060
LJul 11 · 17:53A. Kral—71181192M. Filipek—118115113
LJul 11 · 16:55A. Kral—710111362M. Filipek—1112911113
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113LSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891
Upcoming Matches
A. Kral
Nothing scheduled
M. Filipek
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