TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073779
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Chlumsky
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119119711119
Adam Kral
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Adam Kral at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 10–4 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:30What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Chlumsky
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1448 vs Kral 1494
Kral
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 40% vs Kral 60%
Kral
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 40% vs Kral 60%
Kral
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky -3 · Kral -1
Chlumsky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chlumsky) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.80 / Kral 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chlumsky)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13073779
Chlumsky1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 17 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Kral1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 92 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlumsky6wins
AwayKral4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlumskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKral50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlumsky2Kral8n = 10Kral took 8 of 10
S2Chlumsky5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S3Chlumsky8Kral2n = 10Chlumsky took 8 of 10
S4Chlumsky6Kral3n = 9Chlumsky took 6 of 9
S5Chlumsky2Kral1n = 3Chlumsky took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlumskyKralC − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.6+1.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyKralBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 294 vs 405 / 77645.9%52.2%135 / 294 vs 405 / 776Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyChlumsky 1.80/Kral 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky—211871A. Kral—11811113
WJul 30 · 07:25P. Chlumsky—971111113A. Kral—11116792
WApr 18 · 08:55P. Chlumsky—101111113A. Kral—125691
LApr 10 · 08:25P. Chlumsky—6711111A. Kral—11116133
WMar 28 · 10:25P. Chlumsky—71311163A. Kral—11117141
WSep 20 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—391111113A. Kral—11117672
LSep 17 · 12:55P. Chlumsky—87111172A. Kral—111199113
LAug 5 · 11:55P. Chlumsky—1191171A. Kral—13113113
WJul 8 · 14:25P. Chlumsky—11116113A. Kral—781151
WJul 8 · 12:55P. Chlumsky—1112113A. Kral—61070
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372LJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec1.91791111113P. Chlumsky1.8011116822
A. Kral10
LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113
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