TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12307234
Played Jul 27Finished
Petr Chlumsky
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111161191113117
Filip Marat
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 66.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 12–5 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:36What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Chlumsky
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1456 vs Marat 1409
Chlumsky
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 20% vs Marat 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 40% vs Marat 20%
Chlumsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky -3 · Marat -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Chlumsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.50 / Marat 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Chlumsky)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12307234
Chlumsky1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Marat2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 56 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back36% 28 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back23% 9 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlumsky7wins
AwayMarat3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlumsky100%5 of 5
AwayMarat60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlumsky5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S2Chlumsky9Marat1n = 10Chlumsky took 9 of 10
S3Chlumsky5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S4Chlumsky2Marat3n = 5Marat took 3 of 5
S5Chlumsky3Marat1n = 4Chlumsky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlumskyMaratC − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.336.5+3.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 319 vs 232 / 52846.1%43.9%147 / 319 vs 232 / 528Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyChlumsky 1.50/Marat 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chlumsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—1211118153F. Marat—1051311132
LMay 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky—5990F. Marat—1111113
WApr 10 · 10:00P. Chlumsky—1511133F. Marat—139110
WApr 10 · 06:55P. Chlumsky—1111113F. Marat—9780
LMar 23 · 14:25P. Chlumsky—311811102F. Marat—115117123
WMar 12 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—713118123F. Marat—1111511102
WMar 11 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—913811113F. Marat—111111772
WJan 14 · 10:55P. Chlumsky—1211113F. Marat—10710
WJan 14 · 09:55P. Chlumsky—1111113F. Marat—9650
LJan 7 · 15:40P. Chlumsky—7121091F. Marat—111012113
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960LJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec1.91791111113P. Chlumsky1.8011116822
F. Marat10
LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111WJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852LJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960
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