TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13074004
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Chlumsky
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012711––––
Frantisek Balcar
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Balcar to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Frantisek Balcar below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 60 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Frantisek Balcar at 55.8%
60 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 0–2 Frantisek Balcar Petr Chlumsky has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Balcar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1460 vs Balcar 1530
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 40% vs Balcar 60%
Balcar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 40% vs Balcar 80%
Balcar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky +1 · Balcar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Balcar) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.83 / Balcar 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Balcar)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13074004
Chlumsky1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Balcar1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChlumsky0wins
AwayBalcar2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderBalcar leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChlumskyBalcarC − BBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.042.5−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 295 vs 108 / 22846.1%47.4%136 / 295 vs 108 / 228Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalcarChlumsky 1.83/Balcar 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Balcar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 22 · 14:45P. Chlumsky—511101172F. Balcar—112127113
LJul 22 · 11:55P. Chlumsky—119971F. Balcar—91111113
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113WJul 27 · 14:05P. Chlumsky1.731311113F. Marat2.0011960WJul 27 · 13:25P. Chlumsky1.504111111113F. Marat2.5011691372LJul 27 · 11:55L. Moravec1.91791111113P. Chlumsky1.8011116822
F. Balcar10
LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172
Upcoming Matches
P. Chlumsky
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F. Balcar
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