TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089610
Played Sep 7Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711511––––
Dominik Pasek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Balcar to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Dominik Pasek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Frantisek Balcar at 58.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 2–0 Dominik Pasek Dominik Pasek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Balcar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1536 vs Pasek 1410
Balcar
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 80% vs Pasek 20%
Balcar
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 70% vs Pasek 40%
Balcar
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +2 · Pasek -3
Pasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Balcar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 1.57 / Pasek 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Balcar)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13089610
Balcar1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 29 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Pasek2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 9 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back41% 7 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBalcar2wins
AwayPasek0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderBalcar leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBalcarPasekB − PBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match46.540.0+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarPasekBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 232 vs 45 / 10747.8%42.1%111 / 232 vs 45 / 107Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalcarBalcar 1.57/Pasek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Balcar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Pasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WApr 27 · 21:30F. Balcar—119912113D. Pasek—511111082
WApr 27 · 19:20F. Balcar—11118113D. Pasek—961191
F. Balcar10
WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172
D. Pasek10
WSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113WSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251WAug 9 · 10:00D. Pasek2.501211123J. Dvorak1.50109100LAug 9 · 08:55D. Tichy1.731111113D. Pasek2.002140WAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113LAug 9 · 07:25D. Pasek2.509131151J. Kulveit1.5011157113
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