TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12388705
Played Aug 9Finished
Dominik Pasek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101191210––––
Jakub Dvorak
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Pasek above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 64 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pasek 1–3 Jakub Dvorak Dominik Pasek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pasek 1422 vs Dvorak 1542
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pasek 40% vs Dvorak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pasek 40% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pasek -1 · Dvorak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPasek 2.50 / Dvorak 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Dvorak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12388705
Pasek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 8 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Dvorak1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 24 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it72% 18 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePasek1wins
AwayDvorak3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderDvorak leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDvorak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pasek1Dvorak3n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
S2Pasek1Dvorak3n = 4Dvorak took 3 of 4
S3Pasek3Dvorak1n = 4Pasek took 3 of 4
S4Pasek0Dvorak3n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricPasekDvorakP − DBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match36.042.2−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPasekDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 113 vs 167 / 33743.4%49.6%49 / 113 vs 167 / 337Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakPasek 2.50/Dvorak 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 9 · 08:25D. Pasek—5131111113J. Dvorak—111191362
LApr 12 · 08:55D. Pasek—5660J. Dvorak—1111113
LApr 4 · 08:55D. Pasek—116113122J. Dvorak—511411143
LJul 19 · 08:50D. Pasek—1051171J. Dvorak—12117113
D. Pasek10
WSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113WSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251LAug 9 · 08:55D. Tichy1.731111113D. Pasek2.002140WAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113LAug 9 · 07:25D. Pasek2.509131151J. Kulveit1.5011157113WJun 21 · 10:00D. Pasek1.9151111113D. Vojna1.80115981
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220LAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.