TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12384750
Played Aug 9Finished
Dominik Pasek
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111315117511––
Jonas Kulveit
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timeJonas Kulveit to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Pasek above · Jonas Kulveit below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 82 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jonas Kulveit at 71.3%
82 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pasek 5–15 Jonas Kulveit Dominik Pasek has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kulveit
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Kulveit
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pasek 1441 vs Kulveit 1432
Pasek
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pasek 40% vs Kulveit 80%
Kulveit
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pasek 50% vs Kulveit 70%
Kulveit
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pasek +1 · Kulveit -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kulveit)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulveit form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPasek 2.50 / Kulveit 1.50
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kulveit)+8.8pp
TT Cup · #12384750
Pasek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 10 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Kulveit1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 19 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePasek3wins
AwayKulveit7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKulveit leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePasekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKulveit70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pasek0Kulveit10n = 10Kulveit took 10 of 10
S2Pasek4Kulveit6n = 10Kulveit took 6 of 10
S3Pasek3Kulveit7n = 10Kulveit took 7 of 10
S4Pasek4Kulveit2n = 6Pasek took 4 of 6
S5Pasek2Kulveit1n = 3Pasek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPasekKulveitP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match35.141.5−6.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPasekKulveitBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 114 vs 168 / 36843.9%45.7%50 / 114 vs 168 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.035.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KulveitPasek 2.50/Kulveit 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.3%
Kulveit · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kulveit won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 07:25D. Pasek—9131151J. Kulveit—11157113
LApr 12 · 06:55D. Pasek—7611111J. Kulveit—11118133
LOct 25 · 18:55D. Pasek—9980J. Kulveit—1111103
WJul 27 · 06:20D. Pasek—411511113J. Kulveit—11711982
LJul 26 · 08:55D. Pasek—610120J. Kulveit—1112143
WJun 14 · 21:25D. Pasek—11111611133J. Kulveit—139187112
WMay 4 · 22:00D. Pasek—31111113J. Kulveit—119991
LMay 4 · 18:55D. Pasek—59100J. Kulveit—1111123
LApr 20 · 19:00D. Pasek—6220J. Kulveit—1111113
LApr 19 · 22:00D. Pasek—121191172J. Kulveit—145119113
D. Pasek10
WSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113LSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153LSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113WSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113LSep 3 · 18:50M. Filipek2.00111310113D. Pasek1.738111251WAug 9 · 10:00D. Pasek2.501211123J. Dvorak1.50109100LAug 9 · 08:55D. Tichy1.731111113D. Pasek2.002140WAug 9 · 08:25J. Dvorak1.40111191362D. Pasek2.755131111113WJun 21 · 10:00D. Pasek1.9151111113D. Vojna1.80115981
J. Kulveit10
WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113LAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit2.251310116113J. Melichar1.57111231192WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113LAug 28 · 15:55J. Kulveit1.50811361J. Dvorak2.50111111113WAug 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit1.9111412113M. Dvorak1.807111091LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871
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