Jonas Kulveit vs Jiri Melichar 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13043676

Played Aug 30Finished

Jonas Kulveit

Home

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

13111012113611119

Jiri Melichar

Away

1.57

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%

Graded at full time

Jiri Melichar to win

56.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingJonas Kulveit above · Jiri Melichar below

Set 1 · 13-11

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 11-3

Set 4 · 6-11

Set 5 · 11-9

Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Melichar at 56.5%

97 points played in total.

H2H Jonas Kulveit 2–1 Jiri Melichar Jiri Melichar has won 1 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 2–1Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 20:05

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Melichar

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

2-1 in 3

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kulveit 1540 vs Melichar 1477

Kulveit

Correct

both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kulveit 40% vs Melichar 80%

Melichar

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kulveit 70% vs Melichar 50%

Kulveit

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kulveit +1 · Melichar +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Melichar)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Melichar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKulveit 2.25 / Melichar 1.57

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Kulveit)+2.8pp

TT Cup · #13043676

Kulveit2.25

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog47% won 14 of 30

Down 0–1, comes back32% 7 of 22

Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9

Melichar1.57

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite54% won 15 of 28

Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7

Up 1–0, closes it80% 8 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeKulveit2wins

AwayMelichar1wins

1 of 3 to a deciderKulveit leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kulveit1Melichar2n = 3Melichar took 2 of 3

S2Kulveit1Melichar2n = 3Melichar took 2 of 3

S3Kulveit2Melichar1n = 3Kulveit took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home133%

3–2Decider, home133%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away133%

These 3 meetings

MetricKulveitMelicharK − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match34.338.3−4.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKulveitMelicharBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 340 vs 31 / 5646.5%55.4%158 / 340 vs 31 / 56Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.039.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Melichar

Kulveit 2.25/Melichar 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

56.1%

Melichar · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Kulveit won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record3

WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit—1310116113J. Melichar—111231192

LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit—2760J. Melichar—1111113

WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit—31211113J. Melichar—1110871

J. Kulveit10

WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123 WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113 LAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570 WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182 LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113 LAug 28 · 15:55J. Kulveit1.50811361J. Dvorak2.50111111113 WAug 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit1.9111412113M. Dvorak1.807111091 LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113 WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871 WAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit2.25712158113D. Tichy1.571110131142

J. Melichar10

LSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113 WSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192 LSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780 WSep 6 · 15:25R. Jamrich3.00118751J. Melichar1.3691111113 WSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740 WSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113 WSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142 WSep 4 · 14:55R. Jamrich2.75128751J. Melichar1.40101111113 WAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113 LAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871

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