Jonas Kulveit vs Dominik Tichy 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #12469743

Played Aug 21Finished

Jonas Kulveit

Home

2.25

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

71112101513811114

Dominik Tichy

Away

1.57

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:30 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%

Graded at full time

Dominik Tichy to win

62.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingJonas Kulveit above · Dominik Tichy below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 12-10

Set 3 · 15-13

Set 4 · 8-11

Set 5 · 11-4

Point 102 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Dominik Tichy at 62.5%

102 points played in total.

H2H Jonas Kulveit 1–3 Dominik Tichy Jonas Kulveit has won 1 of their 4 meetings.

Last 4 · 1–3Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 11:30

What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Tichy

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

1-3 in 4

Tichy

Wrong

gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kulveit 1521 vs Tichy 1484

Kulveit

Correct

both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kulveit 80% vs Tichy 20%

Kulveit

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kulveit 60% vs Tichy 20%

Kulveit

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kulveit +3 · Tichy -4

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tichy) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Tichy form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKulveit 2.25 / Tichy 1.57

Signal prob.41% / 59%

Edge (Tichy)+0.0pp

TT Cup · #12469743

Kulveit2.25

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog40% won 10 of 25

Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19

Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8

Tichy1.57

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite70% won 129 of 184

Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68

Up 1–0, closes it84% 101 of 121

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 4 meetings

HomeKulveit1wins

AwayTichy3wins

2 of 4 to a deciderTichy leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKulveitn = 0, below the 3 needed

AwayTichy75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kulveit0Tichy4n = 4Tichy took 4 of 4

S2Kulveit3Tichy1n = 4Kulveit took 3 of 4

S3Kulveit1Tichy3n = 4Tichy took 3 of 4

S4Kulveit1Tichy2n = 3Tichy took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home125%

2–3Decider, away125%

1–3Four sets, away125%

0–3Straight, away125%

These 4 meetings

MetricKulveitTichyK − TBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match36.844.0−7.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKulveitTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 360 vs 154 / 23746.1%65%166 / 360 vs 154 / 237Avg sets wonper match1.82.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.639.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Tichy

Kulveit 2.25/Tichy 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.9%

Tichy · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Kulveit won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record4

WAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit—712158113D. Tichy—1110131142

LAug 15 · 07:55J. Kulveit—71481172D. Tichy—1112115113

LAug 9 · 10:29J. Kulveit—613851D. Tichy—111111113

LAug 9 · 07:55J. Kulveit—6360D. Tichy—1111113

J. Kulveit10

WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123 WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113 LAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570 WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit2.251310116113J. Melichar1.57111231192 WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182 LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113 LAug 28 · 15:55J. Kulveit1.50811361J. Dvorak2.50111111113 WAug 28 · 14:55J. Kulveit1.9111412113M. Dvorak1.807111091 LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113 WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871

D. Tichy10

WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123 WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113 LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441 LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113 LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161 WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123 LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341 LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123 WAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570 WAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113

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