TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035039
Played Aug 28Finished
Jonas Kulveit
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1174111210119––
Milan Dvorak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJonas Kulveit above · Milan Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jonas Kulveit 6–2 Milan Dvorak Milan Dvorak has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Kulveit
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulveit 1521 vs Dvorak 1504
Kulveit
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulveit 80% vs Dvorak 40%
Kulveit
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulveit 70% vs Dvorak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulveit -1 · Dvorak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulveit 1.91 / Dvorak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13035039
Kulveit1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 13 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back33% 7 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Dvorak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite46% won 30 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it53% 17 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKulveit6wins
AwayDvorak2wins
6 of 8 to a deciderKulveit leads 6–2, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulveit66.7%2 of 3
AwayDvorak20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulveit3Dvorak5n = 8Dvorak took 5 of 8
S2Kulveit4Dvorak4n = 8split evenly
S3Kulveit3Dvorak5n = 8Dvorak took 5 of 8
S4Kulveit3Dvorak4n = 7Dvorak took 4 of 7
S5Kulveit6Dvorak0n = 6Kulveit took 6 of 6
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home675%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKulveitDvorakK − DBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match40.841.8−1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulveitDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime160 / 340 vs 164 / 33547.1%49%160 / 340 vs 164 / 335Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakKulveit 1.91/Dvorak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kulveit won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WNov 21 · 19:04J. Kulveit—311113113M. Dvorak—11881182
WNov 21 · 16:50J. Kulveit—711117133M. Dvorak—117511112
WNov 19 · 19:25J. Kulveit—711211103M. Dvorak—11511862
WNov 19 · 18:10J. Kulveit—1161111113M. Dvorak—31113862
LAug 21 · 14:20J. Kulveit—8520M. Dvorak—1111113
LJul 18 · 14:40J. Kulveit—115771M. Dvorak—71111113
WJul 14 · 14:55J. Kulveit—1271111113M. Dvorak—14116672
WJan 2 · 15:40J. Kulveit—111396113M. Dvorak—311111182
J. Kulveit10
WAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 12:55Z. Zahradka1.919470J. Kulveit1.801111113LAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570WAug 30 · 11:25J. Kulveit2.251310116113J. Melichar1.57111231192WAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182LAug 28 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.00481191D. Tichy1.7311119113LAug 28 · 15:55J. Kulveit1.50811361J. Dvorak2.50111111113LAug 21 · 18:50J. Kulveit1.802760J. Melichar1.911111113WAug 21 · 16:55J. Kulveit2.2031211113J. Melichar1.611110871WAug 21 · 15:55J. Kulveit2.25712158113D. Tichy1.571110131142
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113
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