TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076905
Played Sep 4Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1169111311115––
Zdenek Zahradka
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Zdenek Zahradka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 77 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 17–22 Zdenek Zahradka Milan Dvorak has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zahradka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-22 in 39
Zahradka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1442 vs Zahradka 1387
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Zahradka 20%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 40% vs Zahradka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +2 · Zahradka -4
Zahradka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.91 / Zahradka 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13076905
Dvorak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 39 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Zahradka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 121 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it87% 52 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it72% 82 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak4wins
AwayZahradka6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZahradka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak25%1 of 4
AwayZahradka50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Zahradka6n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak8Zahradka2n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S3Dvorak5Zahradka5n = 10split evenly
S4Dvorak4Zahradka4n = 8split evenly
S5Dvorak0Zahradka4n = 4Zahradka took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakZahradkaD − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.9+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 343 vs 421 / 83848.1%50.2%165 / 343 vs 421 / 838Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.91/Zahradka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 18:00M. Dvorak—101611113Z. Zahradka—1214971
LAug 17 · 14:20M. Dvorak—91111782Z. Zahradka—116311113
WJul 23 · 16:20M. Dvorak—1111123Z. Zahradka—22100
LJun 30 · 14:20M. Dvorak—121111992Z. Zahradka—1081311113
LJun 24 · 15:50M. Dvorak—912791Z. Zahradka—111011113
LJun 8 · 18:00M. Dvorak—11480Z. Zahradka—1311113
WJun 8 · 16:25M. Dvorak—71111113Z. Zahradka—114831
LJun 5 · 16:50M. Dvorak—12871122Z. Zahradka—1011116113
LMay 27 · 17:55M. Dvorak—11114972Z. Zahradka—871111113
WMay 27 · 15:50M. Dvorak—91111113Z. Zahradka—114481
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113LAug 28 · 16:25M. Dvorak1.806880D. Tichy1.911111113
Z. Zahradka10
WSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113LSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123LSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101WSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192LSep 4 · 18:00Z. Zahradka1.6111911592R. Jamrich2.20711811113LSep 4 · 17:25Z. Zahradka2.38571191J. Melichar1.5311119113
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