TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035301
Played Aug 28Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811811––––
Dominik Tichy
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Dominik Tichy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 5–1 Dominik Tichy Dominik Tichy has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:01What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Dvorak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1484 vs Tichy 1517
Tichy
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 20% vs Tichy 80%
Tichy
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Tichy 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Tichy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tichy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.80 / Tichy 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13035301
Dvorak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite46% won 30 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it53% 17 of 32
Tichy1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 24 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDvorak5wins
AwayTichy1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderDvorak leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak100%4 of 4
AwayTichyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Tichy2n = 6Dvorak took 4 of 6
S2Dvorak3Tichy3n = 6split evenly
S3Dvorak3Tichy3n = 6split evenly
S4Dvorak3Tichy0n = 3Dvorak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDvorakTichyD − TBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.232.8+5.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakTichyBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 336 vs 158 / 24248.8%65.3%164 / 336 vs 158 / 242Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.80/Tichy 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tichy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 17 · 16:20M. Dvorak—511711143D. Tichy—118119122
LJul 31 · 18:23M. Dvorak—81060D. Tichy—1112113
WJul 31 · 17:25M. Dvorak—1111113D. Tichy—2750
WJul 23 · 15:20M. Dvorak—1111113D. Tichy—4960
WJul 8 · 17:25M. Dvorak—128911113D. Tichy—101111782
WJul 8 · 15:50M. Dvorak—11711113D. Tichy—611781
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143
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