TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082048
Played Sep 5Finished
Dominik Tichy
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
18201210811611––
Martin Filipek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:20 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDominik Tichy to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Tichy above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 18-20
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-10
Point 95 set 4, 6-10 — our read held Dominik Tichy at 54.1%
95 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Dominik Tichy 4–6 Martin Filipek Dominik Tichy has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:20What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tichy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Filipek
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tichy 1518 vs Filipek 1427
Tichy
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tichy 20% vs Filipek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tichy 40% vs Filipek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tichy -1 · Filipek -4
Filipek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tichy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTichy 1.73 / Filipek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tichy)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13082048
Tichy1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 136 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it93% 67 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it82% 106 of 129
Filipek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 86 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back28% 27 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTichy4wins
AwayFilipek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTichy66.7%2 of 3
AwayFilipek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tichy3Filipek7n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S2Tichy5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S3Tichy4Filipek6n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S4Tichy5Filipek2n = 7Tichy took 5 of 7
S5Tichy2Filipek3n = 5Filipek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTichyFilipekT − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.1−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTichyFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 257 vs 256 / 58864.2%43.5%165 / 257 vs 256 / 588Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TichyTichy 1.73/Filipek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Tichy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 07:25D. Tichy—91181122M. Filipek—116119113
LAug 14 · 18:35D. Tichy—81113992M. Filipek—1181111113
LAug 14 · 14:55D. Tichy—9111071M. Filipek—11912113
LJul 20 · 12:25D. Tichy—4770M. Filipek—1111113
WJul 20 · 10:30D. Tichy—781111113M. Filipek—11116882
LJul 20 · 09:25D. Tichy—91170M. Filipek—1113113
WJul 11 · 15:55D. Tichy—11511113M. Filipek—511991
WJul 9 · 15:55D. Tichy—1111123M. Filipek—89100
WJul 8 · 16:20D. Tichy—711914133M. Filipek—1191112112
LJun 30 · 11:25D. Tichy—118914112M. Filipek—4111112133
D. Tichy10
WSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123WSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113LSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441LSep 1 · 01:20J. Cerny2.2011136113D. Tichy1.618111161WAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123LAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 30 · 14:28D. Tichy1.531110711102J. Kulveit2.38712113123WAug 30 · 13:25J. Melichar1.837411121D. Tichy1.8311118143WAug 30 · 12:25D. Tichy1.611111113J. Kulveit2.204570
M. Filipek10
WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891LSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132WSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113
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