TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073481
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111166111311711
Frantisek Balcar
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Balcar to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Frantisek Balcar below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Frantisek Balcar at 56.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 14–17 Frantisek Balcar Martin Filipek has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Filipek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Balcar
Correct
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1507 vs Balcar 1520
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 80% vs Balcar 60%
Filipek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 60% vs Balcar 80%
Balcar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +1 · Balcar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filipek) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.80 / Balcar 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Filipek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13073481
Filipek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 56 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 40 of 51
Balcar1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 42 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek6wins
AwayBalcar4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek62.5%5 of 8
AwayBalcarn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek8Balcar2n = 10Filipek took 8 of 10
S2Filipek6Balcar4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S3Filipek5Balcar5n = 10split evenly
S4Filipek4Balcar3n = 7Filipek took 4 of 7
S5Filipek3Balcar4n = 7Balcar took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekBalcarF − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match46.845.9+0.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 584 vs 107 / 22743.8%47.1%256 / 584 vs 107 / 227Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekFilipek 1.80/Balcar 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 20 · 11:25M. Filipek—1111113F. Balcar—8990
LJul 20 · 06:55M. Filipek—118101172F. Balcar—711128113
WJul 17 · 06:55M. Filipek—1111515113F. Balcar—88111792
LJul 16 · 13:20M. Filipek—917111182F. Balcar—111998113
WJul 16 · 12:20M. Filipek—1111163F. Balcar—69140
LJul 7 · 20:55M. Filipek—128101132F. Balcar—1011129113
WJun 17 · 13:54M. Filipek—119913113F. Balcar—911111182
WJun 17 · 12:55M. Filipek—1111113F. Balcar—9840
LJun 11 · 14:10M. Filipek—121364102F. Balcar—10111111123
WJun 11 · 11:25M. Filipek—8141122113F. Balcar—111292492
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891
F. Balcar10
WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172WJul 22 · 12:55F. Balcar1.731111113R. Jamrich2.005580
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