TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089616
Played Sep 7Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811121011131191416
Frantisek Balcar
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Balcar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Frantisek Balcar below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 115 set 5, 14-16 — our read held Frantisek Balcar at 54.0%
115 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 4–7 Frantisek Balcar Radek Muller has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Balcar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Balcar
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1448 vs Balcar 1536
Balcar
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 40% vs Balcar 80%
Balcar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 30% vs Balcar 70%
Balcar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -1 · Balcar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Balcar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.91 / Balcar 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Balcar)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13089616
Muller1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 18 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back21% 4 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Balcar1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 29 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller3wins
AwayBalcar7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBalcar leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller50%3 of 6
AwayBalcar100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller6Balcar4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S2Muller5Balcar5n = 10split evenly
S3Muller4Balcar6n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S4Muller4Balcar5n = 9Balcar took 5 of 9
S5Muller1Balcar4n = 5Balcar took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerBalcarM − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.242.6+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerBalcarBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 329 vs 111 / 23250.5%47.8%166 / 329 vs 111 / 232Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BalcarMuller 1.91/Balcar 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Balcar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller—8121111142F. Balcar—1110139163
LJul 17 · 10:30R. Muller—11581192F. Balcar—311119113
LJul 17 · 08:25R. Muller—1171281F. Balcar—131110113
LJul 7 · 19:55R. Muller—1391111132F. Balcar—151159153
LApr 20 · 12:25R. Muller—591171F. Balcar—11114113
LMar 11 · 07:55R. Muller—117981F. Balcar—61111113
LFeb 24 · 12:50R. Muller—11116752F. Balcar—661111113
WOct 8 · 09:35R. Muller—111199143F. Balcar—891111122
WOct 8 · 07:20R. Muller—1111113F. Balcar—3790
WOct 7 · 09:20R. Muller—111110113F. Balcar—691241
R. Muller10
WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162LAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181LAug 28 · 20:55R. Muller1.576680J. Sebl2.251111113LAug 28 · 19:55R. Muller1.6110860J. Dohnal2.201211113WAug 28 · 18:55R. Muller1.93111199113B. Budik1.7775111132LAug 23 · 21:28T. Rein2.63911118113R. Muller1.4411981152
F. Balcar10
WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770LSep 1 · 16:20F. Balcar2.50811981A. Kral1.5011811113WSep 1 · 15:20F. Balcar1.5771111113R. Jamrich2.25119781LSep 1 · 14:20F. Balcar1.838980L. Moravec1.831111113WJul 22 · 14:45F. Balcar1.67112127113P. Chlumsky2.10511101172WJul 22 · 12:55F. Balcar1.731111113R. Jamrich2.005580
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