TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035018
Played Aug 28Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611811––––
Jachym Sebl
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:14 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Jachym Sebl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Radek Muller at 57.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 19–11 Jachym Sebl Jachym Sebl has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-11 in 30
Muller
Wrong
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1491 vs Sebl 1618
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 40% vs Sebl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 40% vs Sebl 70%
Sebl
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -1 · Sebl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.57 / Sebl 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Muller)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13035018
Muller1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Sebl2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 68 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller8wins
AwaySebl2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller100%7 of 7
AwaySebl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller7Sebl3n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S2Muller8Sebl2n = 10Muller took 8 of 10
S3Muller7Sebl3n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S4Muller6Sebl0n = 6Muller took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerSeblM − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.529.0+10.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerSeblBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 322 vs 300 / 64150.9%46.8%164 / 322 vs 300 / 641Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.335.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.57/Sebl 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.1%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 19:50R. Muller—111110113J. Sebl—981241
WAug 10 · 18:55R. Muller—1111123J. Sebl—46100
LJul 24 · 19:25R. Muller—91191152J. Sebl—112116113
WJul 12 · 20:25R. Muller—1112123J. Sebl—810100
WJun 28 · 17:50R. Muller—1111113J. Sebl—2990
WJun 28 · 15:50R. Muller—101111113J. Sebl—125591
LJun 23 · 11:20R. Muller—107111182J. Sebl—121169113
WDec 3 · 09:20R. Muller—11711113J. Sebl—411551
WDec 1 · 07:50R. Muller—1111113J. Sebl—6650
WOct 14 · 08:20R. Muller—11119113J. Sebl—451161
R. Muller10
LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162LAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181LAug 28 · 19:55R. Muller1.6110860J. Dohnal2.201211113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
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