TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079146
Played Sep 5Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91110121191012––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 84 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 61.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 14–47 Jaroslav Dohnal Jachym Sebl has won 14 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:23What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Dohnal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-47 in 61
Dohnal
Correct
gap of 33 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1620 vs Dohnal 1420
Sebl
Wrong
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 60% vs Dohnal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 60% vs Dohnal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +3 · Dohnal +2
Sebl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dohnal form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.75 / Dohnal 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Dohnal)-0.9pp
TT Cup · #13079146
Sebl2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog41% won 71 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 63
Dohnal1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 113 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it68% 78 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl2wins
AwayDohnal8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl50%2 of 4
AwayDohnal100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl4Dohnal6n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S2Sebl2Dohnal8n = 10Dohnal took 8 of 10
S3Sebl1Dohnal9n = 10Dohnal took 9 of 10
S4Sebl3Dohnal2n = 5Sebl took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblDohnalS − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.138.3−8.2per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 642 vs 403 / 67946.9%59.4%301 / 642 vs 403 / 679Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.840.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalSebl 2.75/Dohnal 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.4%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dohnal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 14:20J. Sebl—111112113J. Dohnal—791461
LAug 1 · 21:58J. Sebl—6720J. Dohnal—1111113
LAug 1 · 20:55J. Sebl—1199121J. Dohnal—91111143
LJul 24 · 20:25J. Sebl—8870J. Dohnal—1111113
LJul 7 · 21:50J. Sebl—8840J. Dohnal—1111113
LJul 7 · 19:20J. Sebl—124431J. Dohnal—101111113
LJul 6 · 21:50J. Sebl—3670J. Dohnal—1111113
LJul 6 · 19:50J. Sebl—91190J. Dohnal—1113113
LJul 5 · 10:20J. Sebl—101181132J. Dohnal—129118113
WJun 28 · 16:20J. Sebl—11717113J. Dohnal—9111561
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132LSep 3 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.80116951D. Pasek1.9191111113
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