TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051914
Played Aug 31Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1148111311511115
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Sebl to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jachym Sebl at 57.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 5–2 Lukas Dominik Rek Lukas Dominik Rek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:26What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sebl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Sebl
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1620 vs Rek 1544
Sebl
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 60% vs Rek 40%
Sebl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 50% vs Rek 70%
Rek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl +2 · Rek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sebl)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 1.67 / Rek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sebl)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13051914
Sebl1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 75 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 61 of 81
Rek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 9 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSebl5wins
AwayRek2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderSebl leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl100%5 of 5
AwayRekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl5Rek2n = 7Sebl took 5 of 7
S2Sebl4Rek3n = 7Sebl took 4 of 7
S3Sebl5Rek2n = 7Sebl took 5 of 7
S4Sebl1Rek4n = 5Rek took 4 of 5
S5Sebl3Rek1n = 4Sebl took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricSeblRekS − RBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match38.737.1+1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblRekBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 646 vs 138 / 22746.9%60.8%303 / 646 vs 138 / 227Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SeblSebl 1.67/Rek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Sebl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl—118135113L. Rek—411111152
WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl—1111113L. Rek—7930
LAug 9 · 19:55J. Sebl—511541L. Rek—11911113
WJul 23 · 12:20J. Sebl—1110117113L. Rek—41251192
WJun 22 · 12:20J. Sebl—1111113L. Rek—7840
WJun 1 · 14:20J. Sebl—117118113L. Rek—71181192
LMay 9 · 18:55J. Sebl—11361132L. Rek—1111117113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780WAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
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