TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080349
Played Sep 5Finished
Ales Brandtl Jr
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Lukas Dominik Rek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:20 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeLukas Dominik Rek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAles Brandtl Jr above · Lukas Dominik Rek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Lukas Dominik Rek at 61.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Jr 4–5 Lukas Dominik Rek Ales Brandtl Jr has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1412 vs Rek 1544
Rek
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Rek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Rek 60%
Rek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -2 · Rek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.38 / Rek 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Rek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13080349
Jr2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 75 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back29% 30 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 57
Rek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 69 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it79% 48 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayRek5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderRek leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr50%2 of 4
AwayRek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Rek5n = 9Rek took 5 of 9
S2Jr4Rek5n = 9Rek took 5 of 9
S3Jr7Rek2n = 9Jr took 7 of 9
S4Jr2Rek4n = 6Rek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricJrRekJ − RBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match33.234.4−1.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRekBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 533 vs 138 / 22746.9%60.8%250 / 533 vs 138 / 227Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekJr 2.38/Rek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 07:25A. Jr—1181031L. Rek—61112113
WAug 9 · 21:55A. Jr—1111113L. Rek—8580
LAug 9 · 19:25A. Jr—961161L. Rek—11118113
WJun 26 · 16:55A. Jr—81111113L. Rek—116881
LMay 15 · 22:30A. Jr—721151L. Rek—11112113
WMay 15 · 20:25A. Jr—51111113L. Rek—119871
LMay 13 · 15:20A. Jr—6670L. Rek—1111113
LMay 1 · 16:50A. Jr—111011862L. Rek—812511113
WJan 18 · 20:55A. Jr—1111113L. Rek—7990
A. Jr10
LSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143LSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123WSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113LSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193LAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551WAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
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