TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050104
Played Aug 31Finished
Lukas Dominik Rek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115611117711119
Ondrej Knazik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Knazik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Dominik Rek above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ondrej Knazik at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Dominik Rek 1–2 Ondrej Knazik Lukas Dominik Rek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:15What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Knazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1555 vs Knazik 1567
Knazik
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 40% vs Knazik 60%
Knazik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 60% vs Knazik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -1 · Knazik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Knazik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.91 / Knazik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Knazik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13050104
Rek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 9 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Knazik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 88 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it65% 57 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeRek1wins
AwayKnazik2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKnazik leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek1Knazik2n = 3Knazik took 2 of 3
S2Rek3Knazik0n = 3Rek took 3 of 3
S3Rek1Knazik2n = 3Knazik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricRekKnazikR − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.040.3+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 225 vs 457 / 88660.9%51.6%137 / 225 vs 457 / 886Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KnazikRek 1.91/Knazik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Knazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 6 · 11:50L. Rek—1112143O. Knazik—410120
LJun 22 · 13:20L. Rek—101161192O. Knazik—129115113
LJun 22 · 10:20L. Rek—1213981O. Knazik—141111113
L. Rek10
WSep 6 · 14:04A. Jr1.837680L. Rek1.831111113LSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101LSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113LSep 6 · 10:55A. Jr2.001181111113L. Rek1.7313115772LSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890LSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 11:25A. Jr2.381111113L. Rek1.538780LAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152LAug 31 · 07:55J. Sebl2.251111113L. Rek1.577930
O. Knazik10
WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113LSep 1 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.612121111113O. Knazik2.20111013982WSep 1 · 18:50B. Budik1.856680O. Knazik1.851111113WAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
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