TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13066949
Played Sep 3Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116811911711––
Ondrej Knazik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeVojtech Koutnik to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 74 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vojtech Koutnik at 56.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 11–11 Ondrej Knazik Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Knazik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1560 vs Knazik 1534
Koutnik
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 80% vs Knazik 40%
Koutnik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 70% vs Knazik 40%
Koutnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik +2 · Knazik -3
Knazik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Knazik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Knazik form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 2.20 / Knazik 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Knazik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13066949
Koutnik2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 51 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back35% 22 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Knazik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 86 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it65% 57 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik4wins
AwayKnazik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKnazik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik66.7%4 of 6
AwayKnazik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik6Knazik4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S2Koutnik3Knazik7n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S3Koutnik4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S4Koutnik2Knazik3n = 5Knazik took 3 of 5
S5Koutnik2Knazik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikKnazikKoutnik − KnazikBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.935.9−1.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 331 vs 455 / 88245.9%51.6%152 / 331 vs 455 / 882Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KnazikKoutnik 2.20/Knazik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Knazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Knazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 1 · 11:55V. Koutnik—113661O. Knazik—81111113
LJun 27 · 07:55V. Koutnik—11671172O. Knazik—611114113
WApr 3 · 18:05V. Koutnik—1111113O. Knazik—7860
LApr 3 · 15:25V. Koutnik—5980O. Knazik—1111113
LMar 27 · 12:50V. Koutnik—111111682O. Knazik—139611113
WMar 20 · 14:25V. Koutnik—119811113O. Knazik—61111972
LMar 11 · 16:20V. Koutnik—7980O. Knazik—1111113
WMar 8 · 11:05V. Koutnik—1111113O. Knazik—4740
LMar 8 · 08:55V. Koutnik—6880O. Knazik—1111113
WMar 5 · 14:20V. Koutnik—118119113O. Knazik—81171192
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik2.751211113T. Hnizdil1.4010460WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252WAug 25 · 11:50V. Koutnik1.5061113113J. Vintr2.501111151
O. Knazik10
WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113LSep 1 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.612121111113O. Knazik2.20111013982WSep 1 · 18:50B. Budik1.856680O. Knazik1.851111113WAug 31 · 10:03A. Jr2.639980O. Knazik1.441111113LAug 31 · 09:25L. Rek1.91116117113O. Knazik1.8051171192LAug 31 · 08:25O. Knazik1.448760A. Jr2.631111113
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