TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068168
Played Sep 3Finished
Vojtech Koutnik
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210114116––––
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:38 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVojtech Koutnik above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 67.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Koutnik 5–7 Tomas Hnizdil Vojtech Koutnik has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hnizdil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Hnizdil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koutnik 1562 vs Hnizdil 1559
Koutnik
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koutnik 60% vs Hnizdil 80%
Hnizdil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koutnik 60% vs Hnizdil 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koutnik -1 · Hnizdil +3
Hnizdil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koutnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoutnik 2.75 / Hnizdil 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Hnizdil)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13068168
Koutnik2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 51 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back35% 22 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Hnizdil1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 35 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoutnik4wins
AwayHnizdil6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoutnik80%4 of 5
AwayHnizdil100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koutnik5Hnizdil5n = 10split evenly
S2Koutnik6Hnizdil4n = 10Koutnik took 6 of 10
S3Koutnik1Hnizdil9n = 10Hnizdil took 9 of 10
S4Koutnik4Hnizdil2n = 6Koutnik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoutnikHnizdilK − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.534.8−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoutnikHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 333 vs 139 / 24546%56.7%153 / 333 vs 139 / 245Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilKoutnik 2.75/Hnizdil 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Koutnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 11:55V. Koutnik—1211113T. Hnizdil—10460
LMar 21 · 09:55V. Koutnik—6660T. Hnizdil—1111113
LMar 2 · 14:25V. Koutnik—5111081T. Hnizdil—11812113
LDec 6 · 15:00V. Koutnik—311861T. Hnizdil—11811113
WDec 6 · 13:55V. Koutnik—11114113T. Hnizdil—871181
LAug 31 · 07:55V. Koutnik—119121132T. Hnizdil—911143113
LJul 20 · 09:20V. Koutnik—7620T. Hnizdil—1111113
LJul 20 · 07:20V. Koutnik—7980T. Hnizdil—1111113
WMar 23 · 10:25V. Koutnik—11116113T. Hnizdil—991131
WMar 23 · 09:50V. Koutnik—11117113T. Hnizdil—761181
V. Koutnik10
LSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113WSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272LSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113WAug 26 · 14:35F. Dvorak1.4581070V. Koutnik2.601112113WAug 26 · 13:25A. Jr2.50119661V. Koutnik1.5091111113LAug 26 · 12:25V. Koutnik2.63671181F. Dvorak1.4411116113WAug 26 · 10:55T. Rein2.2581111872V. Koutnik1.57118311113WAug 25 · 14:10S. Matousch2.268850V. Koutnik1.521111113LAug 25 · 12:50T. Jr2.381011814113V. Koutnik1.53128111252WAug 25 · 11:50V. Koutnik1.5061113113J. Vintr2.501111151
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872
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