TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13085081
Played Sep 6Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118611117811119
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:28 and never touched — 78.5% is still 78.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
78.5%
78.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 78.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 5–18 Tomas Hnizdil Petr Vodal has won 5 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:28What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Hnizdil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-18 in 23
Hnizdil
Wrong
gap of 13 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1359 vs Hnizdil 1566
Hnizdil
Wrong
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 0% vs Hnizdil 40%
Hnizdil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 10% vs Hnizdil 60%
Hnizdil
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal -5 · Hnizdil -2
Vodal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hnizdil form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 3.75 / Hnizdil 1.25
Signal prob.22% / 79%
Edge (Hnizdil)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13085081
Vodal3.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 50 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back35% 18 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 26
Hnizdil1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 40 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal2wins
AwayHnizdil8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodaln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHnizdil100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal2Hnizdil8n = 10Hnizdil took 8 of 10
S2Vodal3Hnizdil7n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S3Vodal3Hnizdil7n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S4Vodal2Hnizdil2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalHnizdilV − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match26.135.6−9.5per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 489 vs 142 / 24850.5%57.3%247 / 489 vs 142 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilVodal 3.75/Hnizdil 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.5%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal—11680T. Hnizdil—1311113
LJul 22 · 07:55P. Vodal—12430T. Hnizdil—1411113
WJun 29 · 07:55P. Vodal—1111113T. Hnizdil—8970
LFeb 28 · 13:55P. Vodal—11760T. Hnizdil—1311113
LJan 27 · 12:20P. Vodal—461161T. Hnizdil—11119113
LAug 17 · 08:40P. Vodal—613281T. Hnizdil—111111113
LAug 16 · 12:20P. Vodal—21131142T. Hnizdil—116118103
LAug 7 · 08:20P. Vodal—6650T. Hnizdil—1111113
LJul 31 · 09:40P. Vodal—6840T. Hnizdil—1111113
WJul 31 · 08:10P. Vodal—11511113T. Hnizdil—211961
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 30 · 13:30P. Vodal1.73107111172J. Dohnal2.00121197113WAug 30 · 12:50P. Vodal2.001011116123J. Dohnal1.73126311102LAug 30 · 11:20T. Rein1.8371212113P. Vodal1.8311101031
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 12:55A. Jr3.2579120T. Hnizdil1.331111143WSep 6 · 12:25L. Rek2.755970T. Hnizdil1.401111113WSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112LSep 6 · 09:35B. Budik1.441111113T. Hnizdil2.608890WSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113LSep 6 · 06:50T. Hnizdil1.5791461182B. Budik2.251112118113LSep 5 · 10:50B. Budik2.009111011113T. Hnizdil1.7211512672WSep 5 · 09:25T. Hnizdil1.571111911113B. Budik2.2591311872WSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113
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